曼昆 宏观经济学 第七版 第六章 讲义.pptVIP

* For more details on this, see the book. updated version of Figure 6-4. Source: , obtained from /fls/home.htm * * * Table 6-1 Source: Same as textbook (OECD Economic Outlook 2004, as reported in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005.) * * * * * The natural rate of unemployment is the “normal” unemployment rate the economy experiences when it is neither in a recession nor a boom. Similar to Figure 1 in the textbook. The actual unemployment rate fluctuates considerably over the short run. These fluctuations are the focus of Part IV of the book. For this chapter, though, our goal is to understand the behaviour of the natural rate of unemployment, essentially the long-run trend in the unemployment rate. Source: BLS, obtained from /fred2/ Unemployment data are based on seasonally-adjusted, monthly unemployment rates for the civilian non-institutional population of the U.S. The actual u-rate for each quarter is an average of the three monthly unemployment rates in that quarter. The natural u-rate in a given quarter is estimated by averaging all unemployment rates from 10 years earlier to 10 years later; future unemployment rates are set at 5.5%. (Therefore, estimates of the natural rate may become less accurate toward the end of the sample period.) * * On this slide, we begin Section 6-1 of the book. * This slide spells out the three variables that are assumed to be exogenous: the labour force, the rate of job separations, and the rate of job finding. * Figure 6-2, p. 165 (note: The size of the boxes containing the words “employed” and “unemployed” are not proportional to the number of people in each category.) * In order for the unemployment rate to be constant, the number of people who become unemployed in each month must equal the number of formerly unemployed people who find jobs. * * * * * * Sometimes the unemployment caused by sectoral shifts is severe. Due to increasing imports of cheaper foreign-made textiles (particularly since t