发电系统可靠性分析.doc

PAGE PAGE III 发电机组可靠性研究 摘 要 近些年来，电力系统不断向高电压、远距离、大容量、区域互联方向发展，在提高经济性的同时，其安全可靠性的问题也逐渐突显出来。发电系统是电力系统的一个重要组成部分。在对发电系统进行可靠性分析时，假设电力系统的其余部分均完全可靠。也就是说如果发电容量充足，输电和配电系统可以将发电系统的电能传送到任何负荷点，而不致由于过负荷或母线电压偏移超过允许值等原因而出现电力不足。因此，在任何时刻，衡量系统是正常或故障的判据，是发出的电力能否满足负荷的需要。为了提高发电系统可靠性，一方面是尽量提高发电机组的可用度，另一方面是加大发电备用容量——以备在机组发生故障或维修而退出运行时使用。 本文运用定量分析法，对发电系统进行可靠性分析的研究，即建立发电容量模型。发电机组或系统在T时刻处于某种容量状态的概率叫做容量状态概率模型，它的概率分布是离散型的。在实际应用中容量状态概率模型有两种表达形式：一种是可用或有效容量概率模型；另一种是停运容量概率模型。其中可用容量概率模型：PU = P (X = c), PD = P (X = 0)为本文所重点采用，对发电系统进行相关的实例计算。 关键词：发电系统；可靠性；评估 Power Generation System Reliability Assessment Abstract In recent years, electric power system continues to become high-voltage, long-distance,large-capacity and area interconected. With improving economy, the issue of its reliablity is becoming more and more important.The power generation system is one of the most important components in the power system.When analysising power generation system reliability, assuming that the rest of the power system is fully reliable. That means if the generation capacity is sufficient, the transmission and distribution systems can transmit electrical energy of the power generation system to any load point, without overload or bus voltage offset becoming more than the allowable value or because of other reasons, lack of electricity. Therefore, at any time, the criterion to measure the system is to see whether the emitted power can meet the needs of the load. In order to improve the reliability of power generation systems, on one hand is to maximize the availability of generating units, on the other hand, is to increase the reserve capacity of power generation - to prepare for using in the unit to malfunction and maintenance and decommissioning. In this paper, we use quantitative analysis method for the study of power generation system reliability, that is to establish generating capacity model. Generating units or systems in the probability of a certain capacity of the state at time T, is called the capacit