走向绿色发展之《2002中国人类发展报告》评论.pptVIP

走向绿色发展之路：《2002中国人类发展报告》评论 Remarks on Making Green Development A Choice: China Human Development Report 2002 王 毅 WANG Yi 中国科学院生态环境研究中心 Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences 2002年6月28日，北京 June 28, 2002 Beijing 报告背景Background 中国加入WTO China’s Accession to the WTO 世界可持续发展高峰会议 the World Summit on Sustainable Development 中国“十五”计划启动 Implementation of the Tenth Five-Year Plan 面临政府换届 New Government 报告要点 Main Points of the Report 全面评估中国的环境状况：认为中国的环境问题依然严峻，成为影响未来的主要因素 Overall Assessment of Current Environmental Status in China 对未来的情景分析，给出了两种可能：危险道路和绿色之路 Scenario-based Assessment for the Future, Two Optional Pathways：the Perilous Path and the Green Reform Path 从关注问题转向改变驱动力 Attention Changed from Concerning Issues to Driving Forces 挑战与机会并存，选择在己，走绿色发展之路 Challenges and Opportunities, Right Option--Green Development Path 环境状况Environmental Status 人口日益增长 Population Growth 自然资源加速匮乏 Scarce Natural Resources 环境状况整体恶化（特别是生态问题、环境健康和西部地区） Environmental Degradation (Ecological Issue, Environmental Health, Degradation in the Western Region) 上述因素相互影响 Factors Interaction 人文发展指数与健康风险指数的关系Relationship between HDI and HRI 研究表明： Research Shows: 人文发展指数越高，健康风险指数越低； The Higher HDI, the Lower HRI 收入对人文发展指数影响最大； Income Has the Largest Influence on the Change of HDI 水污染和营养水平对健康风险指数影响最大； Water Pollution and Nutrition Influence the HRI Most 环境质量、营养和健康服务与收入增长呈正相关。 The Income Increase Has a Positive Correlation With Environmental Quality, Nutrition and Health Services 驱动因素的评估Assessment of Drivers 中国的环境恶化很大程度上取决于驱动因素的影响（人口、经济增长、贫困、意识、消费与技术进步，全球化压力与治理结构） Influences of Drivers on the Deterioration of the Environment in China (Population, Economic Growth, Poverty, Awareness, Consumption, Technology Advance, Globalization and Governance) 未来发展：不确定性 Future Development: Uncertainties 两种道路：危险之路 Two Pathways ： the Perilous Path 降低应付未来不确定性的能力 Reduce resilience of society to withstand uncertain futures 削弱中长期增长潜力 Undermine mid-and long-t