基于决策影响图分析的房地产项目财务风险控制问题研究-工业工程专业论文.docxVIP

摘 摘 要 本文对房地产开发项目中财务风险控制理论和方法的体系进行了探讨和分 析。风险分析既是对不确定性问题的分析的工具，也是决策问题的重要组成部分。 本文是在国内外房地产财务风险分析、方法的基础上，提出应用决策影响图进行 财务风险分析。影响图是一种新型的决策分析工具，是决策问题定性描述与定量 分析有机结合的“图形”纽带，如何将其运用于房地产开发项目财务风险分析之 中，在决策影响图理论与方法的研究领域尚属于新课题，笔者在研究决策图的基 础上，与风险分析方法进行了比较研究。从决策影响图建模过程和高斯决策影响 图算法评价的特点两个方面进行了探讨。以Fc工程为背景建立了财务风险分析 决策影响图模型。将蒙特卡罗模拟与决策影响图评价算法结合起来，编制了计算 机程序，用于解决房地产开发项目工程财务指标评价中的风险估计问题，并为财， 务指标评价系统的风险分析提供了一新的方法。 本文在实际应用的结论中给出了Fc工程财务指标的风险估计和概率分布。 此外利用这套方法，从风险决策角度对该工程进行了估计，为工程风险决策提供 了科学依据。 关键词：风险分析 决策影响图 高斯决策影响图 蒙特卡罗模拟法 AbstractIn Abstract In this thesis，financial risking control theory and method system，which Occur in estate exploit items，are discussed and analyzed．Risking analysis is not ooly all analysis tool to quantitative problem，but also an important component segment to decision problem．On the basis ofestate financial risking analysis and method of OtlT country and abroad，this thesis puts forward applying decision influential diagram to financial risking analysis．Influential diagram is a new kind ofdecision analysis tool，and it is an organic integration diagram intersection ofquantitative and quality analysis in decision problem．How to use it in estate exploiting item’S financial risking analysis is a new item in the research field of decision of influential diagram theory and method．On the basis ofresearching decision program，the author goes on a research，compared it with risking analysis method．Two aspects of decision influential diagram modeling process and Gauss decision influential diagram calculating method appraisal character arc discussed．On the background ofFC engineering，the model offinancial risking analysis decision influential diagram is set uD．In terms of the integration of Mont Cado Simulation and decision influential diagram appraisal calculating method,calculating procedure is compiled．It Can be used to resolve the risking appraisal problem,which occur in estate exploiting items engineer financial criterion appraisal，and provide a new method for the risking analysis of f