海岛旅游地人地关系协调发展研究——以舟山群岛为例旅游管理专业论文.docxVIP

II II 现整体上舟山群岛在 2002 年到 2011 年十年之间“人”系统与“地”系统的协调 发展度呈现上升的趋势，2002 年协调发展度为 0.2837，经过 10 年的发展，到 2011 年，舟山群岛“人”系统与“地”系统协调发展水平达到 0.6150，协调发 展度增长速度较为平缓。 4 运用灰色预测模型对舟山群岛未来 5 年的人地关系协调发展度进行预测， 通过建立模型、模型计算以及模型精度检验等分析过程，得到 2012 年到 2016 年 5 年的人地关系协调发展度。通过对计算结果的分析，在舟山群岛人地关系系 统不发生突变的情况下，未来 5 年内舟山群岛人地关系协调发展度逐年增加，呈 现比较平缓的上升发展趋势，2015 年舟山群岛人地关系协调发展度为 0.7192， 达到中级协调发展水平。 关键词：舟山群岛；旅游地；人地关系；协调发展模型；灰色预测模型 III III The study of coordinated development of man-earth relationship of island tourism destination—Zhou Shan islands Abstract Man-earth relationship is an objective relationship, which is exist since the origins of mankind and not to man?s will. Simply ,man-earth relationship is refers to the relationship between human activities and geographical environment. The island tourism destination is a special type of tourism destination that relative to other resource-based tourism destination, including the island itself and its surrounding seas, which can inspire people?s travel motivations and travel demand, and can attract people make tourism activities such as sightseeing, excursions, leisure, and vacation. The contradictions of man-earth relationship in island tourism destination is very sharp. We need to explore the relationship and the interaction process and interaction mechanism between human activities and the geographical environment. Then we can seek the way of coordinated development of man-earth relationship of island tourism destination. Based on existing theories and methods of geography, systematic, tourism and other related disciplines, combined with relevant research results have been achieved at home and abroad, this paper define the scope of relevant concepts and explore the characteristics and composition of man-earth system of island tourism destination, then build the evaluation index system of the system. Based on this, take Zhou Shan as an example, collect data and information of Zhou Shan island , we use entropy evaluation method to calculate the weight of evalua