国际热钱流动对我国房地产市场价格的影响分析-应用经济学专业论文.docxVIP

II II Abstract The acceleration of the process of economic globalization and financial liberalization provides a convenient for the global-free-flowing of international hot money. With the high expectation of RMB appreciation and the rapid development of Chinese economy, a large number of international hot money flow into China. During this period, Chinese real estate industry developed rapidly. Huge profit margins attracted a large number of international hot money to flow into the housing market and carry on speculative activities, which contributed to the rising prices of Chinese real estate market. Large-scale international hot money flowing into or out of Chinese real estate market will lead to the volatility of the price of the real estate market in China. However, the real estate industry is the leading industry and it has great influence in our country. The volatility of the price of the real estate market will seriously affected the health development of Chinese macroeconomic and social stability. The transmission mechanism, by which the international hot money influences the price of the housing market, is classified into direct transmission mechanism and indirect transmission mechanism. The conduction effects include liquidity effect, extrusion effect and wealth effect. What more, from the condition of Chinese international hot money and the Chinese housing market price in recent years, we find that, on the one hand, the international hot money promote the development of Chinese real estate market and the rising of Chinese housing market price. On the other hand, the international hot money exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand of Chinese housing market. We established an empirical model with four variables, which are the scale of the international hot money, the price index of Chinese housing market, the price index of first-tier cities housing market and the price index of second-tier cities housing market. The variables are quarterly