东华大学供应链管理课件Chapter 5 Distribution Strategies.ppt

2005/3/18 A new Supply Chain Paradigm A shift from a Push System... Production decisions are based on forecast …to a Push-Pull System The Old Paradigm: Push Strategies Production decisions based on long-term forecasts Ordering decisions based on inventory forecasts What are the problems with push strategies? Inability to meet changing demand patterns Obsolescence The bullwhip effect: Excessive inventory Excessive production variability Poor service levels A Newer Paradigm: Pull Strategies Production is demand driven Production and distribution coordinated with true customer demand Firms respond to specific orders Pull Strategies result in: Reduced lead times (better anticipation) Decreased inventory levels at retailers and manufacturers Decreased system variability Better response to changing markets But: Harder to leverage economies of scale Doesn’t work in all cases Push-Pull Supply Chains A new Supply Chain Paradigm A shift from a Push System... Production decisions are based on forecast …to a Push-Pull System Initial portion of the supply chain is replenished based on long-term forecasts For example, parts inventory may be replenished based on forecasts Final supply chain stages based on actual customer demand. For example, assembly may based on actual orders. Consider Two PC Manufacturers: Build to Stock Forecast demand Buys components Assembles computers Observes demand and meets demand if possible. A traditional push system Build to order Forecast demand Buys components Observes demand Assembles computers Meets demand A push-pull system Push-Pull Strategies The push-pull system takes advantage of the rules of forecasting: Forecasts are always wrong The longer the forecast horizon the worst is the forecast Aggregate forecasts are more accurate The Risk Pooling Concept Delayed differentiation is another example Consider Benetton sweater production What is the Best Strategy Selecting the Best SC Strategy Higher demand uncertainty suggests pull High