沈阳农业大学经济管理学院公司理财课件 第八章.ppt

本章内容提要 8.1 Sensitivity Analysis, Scenario Analysis, and Break-Even Analysis Allows us to look the behind the NPV number to see firm our estimates are. When working with spreadsheets, try to build your model so that you can just adjust variables in one cell and have the NPV calculations key to that. Sensitivity Analysis and Scenario Analysis In the Stewart Pharmaceutical example, revenues were projected to be $7,000,000 per year. If they are only $6,000,000 per year, the NPV falls to $1,341.64 Sensitivity Analysis We can see that NPV is very sensitive to changes in revenues. For example, a 14% drop in revenue leads to a 61% drop in NPV Scenario Analysis A variation on sensitivity analysis is scenario analysis. For example, the following three scenarios could apply to Stewart Pharmaceuticals: The next years each have heavy cold seasons, and sales exceed expectations, but labor costs skyrocket. The next years are normal and sales meet expectations. The next years each have lighter than normal cold seasons, so sales fail to meet expectations. Other scenarios could apply to FDA approval for their drug. For each scenario, calculate the NPV. Break-Even Analysis Another way to examine variability in our forecasts is break-even analysis. In the Stewart Pharmaceuticals example, we could be concerned with break-even revenue, break-even sales volume or break-even price. The break-even IATCF is given by: Break-Even Analysis We can start with the break-even incremental after-tax cash flow and work backwards through the income statement to back out break-even revenue: Break-Even Analysis Now that we have break-even revenue as $5,358.72 million we can calculate break-even price and sales volume. If the original plan was to generate revenues of $7,000 million by selling the cold cure at $10 per dose and selling 700 million doses per year, we can reach break-even revenue with a sales volume of only: 问题与思考 资本预算的方法 案例：上不上大学的投资决策 假设你即将高中毕业，正面临一个选择，是否继续对你自己进行人力资本投资，上不上大学。 如果按照经典的NPV