物价变动因素对房地产投资决策的影响MBA学位论文.doc

摘 要 目前，大多数房地产开发企业在做投资决策分析时都是以物价不变为前提的，但对于大中型房地产开发项目来说，其项目周期一般都比较长，不可避免地要受到物价变动因素的影响。这些影响包括房地产销售价格的影响、社会物价水平（通货膨胀）对建造成本的影响、通货膨胀率变动对银行贷款利率及项目现金流量折现率的影响等等。本文建立了具有可操作性的房地产投资决策模型并结合上海证大置业有限公司水清木华住宅小区项目的具体情况来研究物价变动因素对房地产投资决策的影响。 文章通过灰色系统理论对未来几年上海市商品房销售额和竣工价值做出预测，进而根据统计规律预测出今后几年的中房上海指数走势和水清木华项目的销售价格变化。又利用费雪公式来调整与给定的通货膨胀率相对应的银行贷款利率和房地产项目现金流量折现率。这样就可以定量分析物价变动因素对房地产投资的影响，并可以测算出具体房地产开发项目所能承受的最高通货膨胀率，进而以此作为判别项目方案可行性的重要依据。文章还结合水清木华项目的具体情况就房地产开发商如何应对物价变动因素对投资项目的不利影响提出了一些实际措施，可以在房地产投资实践中借鉴参考。 本研究为房地产企业更为科学合理地进行投资决策分析、自觉规避物价变动风险提供了定量分析的新思路，在房地产业逐步走向成熟的今天，对房地产开发企业具有较强的参考价值。 关键词：房地产，财务分析，价格，通货膨胀率 The Effect Of Price Fluctuation On Estate Investment Abstract On the basis of unchanged of market price, most real estate developers’ analyze and make their investment decisions nowadays; however, to most of large and middle sized real estate projects, generally, the period of it is too long to avoid the influence of the price fluctuation. These influence factors include the sale price of real estate, change of construction cost caused by price level (inflation), interest rate on loans and discount rate of cash flow caused by the change of inflation. This article establishes operative model for investment policy decision of real estate and according to the special situation of Tsinghua Garden of Shanghai Zendai Real Estate Co., Ltd, it studies the influence of fluctuation of market price on the real estate investment. Through the Grey System Theory, this article firstly makes a prediction at the total sales of the commodity residences and completion value of Shanghai, and then predicts the tendency of index of Shanghai real estate price and the change of sale price of Tsinghua Garden according to statistical regulation. We can regulate interest rate on loans and discount rate of cash flow using Fisher equation relevant to specific inflation. Therefore we can quantitatively analyze the influence of price fluctuation on the real estate investment, and then calculate the highest inf