决策陷阱的实例TheEmotionaleffect21行销高手vs精明-交通大学.PPT

2.3 送禮的藝術 送 A 助理 1,500元的高檔圍巾 送 B 助理 2,000元的大衣 那一位朋友比較高興你的禮物？ □ A □ B 免費學日本武術 如果要收費，沒有學生付得起。 這是什麼意思？ 無情的律師？ 美國退休人員協會詢問一些律師是否願意 降低收費為一些貧窮的退休人員提供服務？ □ 同意 □ 拒絕 新的提議：律師們是否願意為貧窮的退休人員提供免費服務？ □ 同意 □ 拒絕 市場交換 vs. 社會交換 幫忙鄰居搬家，我們常需要別人幫忙看看孩子，或是在我們出遠門時幫忙收信件。 傻女婿去岳父家過感恩節。 我們同時生活在社會世界和市場世界裡，若將市場交換規範導入社會交換關係，則會犯下錯誤，甚至很難恢復人際關係。 結語：正視決策的不理性 1. 我們一直假設顧客、員工、管理者都會做出理性決策。 但只要實際檢視，常會發現人們在不知不覺中受到認知偏誤的影響，一再犯同樣的錯誤而不自覺。 若我們行為模式類似，還會有加大效應。 2. 理性是人類的寶貴天賦，要經常磨練。一旦自覺自己的非理性傾向，要提高警覺，避免陷阱。 Forewarned is Forearmed. Making Smarter Decisions! 將使妳成為：聰明的少數。 3. 知識可劃分為 (1) 條理 (2) 體驗 (3) 直覺知識，學校重視 (1). 若自己再缺乏好奇心，(2) (3) 的比重又低，則應用績效必差。 * Common Decision Traps Decision-Making Biases and Errors Heuristics Using “rules of thumb” to simplify decision making. Overconfidence Bias Holding unrealistically positive views of one’s self and one’s performance. Immediate Gratification Bias Choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs. * * Anchoring Effect Fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information. Selective Perception Bias Selecting organizing and interpreting events based on the decision maker’s biased perceptions. Confirmation Bias Seeking out information that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradictory information. * * Framing Bias Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects. Availability Bias Losing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events. Representation Bias Drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist. Randomness Bias Creating unfounded meaning out of random events. * * Sunk Costs Errors Forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences. Self-Serving Bias Taking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures. Hindsight Bias Mistakenly believing that an event c