北美贸易战外文文献2018NAFTA collapse, trade war and North American disengagement.pdf

Available online at ScienceDirect Journal of Policy Modeling 40 (2018) 614–635 NAFTA collapse, trade war and North American disengagement Sherman Robinson ∗, Karen Thierfelder 1 Peterson Institute for International Economics, 1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, D.C. 20036-1903, USA Received 5 January 2018; received in revised form 15 March 2018; accepted 28 March 2018 Available online 1 May 2018 Keywords: Scenarios of NAFTA dissolution; Damage from dissolution of NAFTA; Value/production chains 1. Introduction The United States, Mexico, and Canada are in the process of renegotiating NAFTA. Given the political rhetoric in the Trump Administration, with an emphasis on “putting America first,” the United States is pursuing a negotiating stance that makes agreement with Canada and Mexico difficult. In addition, the US has recently announced that it will impose tariffs against imports of steel and aluminum to protect its domestic industries. If it includes its NAFTA partners in this policy, undercutting the three-country free trade area, the NAFTA renegotiation will be even more difficult. One possible outcome is that NAFTA collapses, and the prior Canada-US free trade agreement (CUSFTA) also ends. The three countries would then revert to pursuing independent trade policies within the general framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO). President Trump has stated that the US will not participate in any new multilateral trade negotiations and pulled out of the completed Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement. A failure of NAFTA would make new bilateral trade agreements difficult to pursue, since potential partners would be unlikely to start such negotiations. In this environm