低碳时代中国有机化工走势的探讨.doc

________________________ 2010-05- 收到初稿，2010-07- 收到修改稿。 第一作者及联系人：华贲(1937.11- )，男，教授. Received date: 2010-05-. Corresponding author: Professor Hua Ben. E-mail: cehuaben@scut.edu.cn 低碳时代中国有机化工走势的探讨 华贲1 ， 王小伍1、2 （1华南理工大学天然气利用研究中心 广东 广州510640；2华南理工大学物理系，广东 广州510640） 摘要: 气候变化约限下的低碳经济时代，2020-2025年可能是世界一次能源构成的转折点。未来40-50年内石油可能逐步退出交通燃料领域，从而可减缓价格上升趋势、延长使用年限，并主要用于化工原料，同时维持对于煤化工和生物质化工的竞争力。未来的有机化工原料将是石油、煤、生物质三者博弈的局面，发展格局主要取决于各自领域的科技进步。必须对三种原料路线相应的CCS的技术经济进展进行深入研究，以判断碳减排约束对三者博弈趋势的影响。中国应当在全国范围内因地制宜制订天然气和NGPL资源优化利用的总体战略，和在全球范围内的有机化工产业链全方位布局战略。 关键词：低碳时代；生物质化工；煤化工；石油化工；碳扑捉封存；全局战略 中图分类号： TQ536.9 文献标识码：A 文章编号：2010 The trend of China’s Organic Chemical Industry in Low Carbon Era Hua Ben1, Wang Xiaowu1,2 （1Natural Gas Research Center, South China University of Technology, Guangdong Guangzhou, 510640; 1、2Physics Department, South China University of Technology, Guangdong Guangzhou, 510640） Abstract: In the coming low-carbon era under the climate change constraint, the turning point of the world primary energy structure would appear in 2020-2025. In the future 40-50 years, oil would quit gradually from transportation fuel market. This would result in slowing the pace of oil’s price rising, extending its life time; and would be mainly used in petrochemical, and keeping its competitiveness with coal chemical industry and biomass chemical industry. In the future, the market of organic chemical raw material would be the battlefield among petroleum, coal, and biomass. The scenario will depend upon scientific and technological progress. It is necessary to study the technology progress and economics of CCS on the three raw materials routes. China has to make its countrywide optimization strategy of natural gas and NGPL resources; and global arrangement strategy of its organic chemical industry. Key words：Low Carbon Era; Bio-chem. Industry; Coal-chem. Industry; Petrochemical Industry; CCS; Global Strategy 引言 工业化以来的150年间，地表大气中CO2的浓度增加了35%，增加部分的80%来自于化石能源的使用；而其中的