CTR-市场前瞻模型在电视节目研究中的利用总结.DOC

（2012年总结、计划类） CTR:市场前瞻模型在电视节目研究中的利用 作者：刘会召、王凯博、万强、王晓华 　　单位：央视市场研究股分有限公司 [摘要]：当前，媒体市场正面对诸多危机，此中内容危机是其关键地点，首要表示在过渡依托电视剧，导致原创性节目不足。同时，剧烈的市场竞争，也导致节目裁减率高，火不外三月的市场实际。业界亟需寻求一种可以或许切当体味不雅众需求，前瞻市场成长动态以指导将来节目成长的有效编制。今朝国内媒介研究范畴关于不雅众需求的测量编制各别，角度也各有不合。本文发觉解决消费者细分标题问题标市场前瞻模型一样合用于媒体消费者，其引领者的概念与媒体传播市场中的定见魁首角色具有某种程度上的一致性。依托市场前瞻模型的研发思绪，本文测验测验将产品研究中消费者细分范畴的引领者概念利用于不雅众研究，并进行了合用于中国媒体市场的本土化改革。同时，依托查询拜访资本，利用该理论在综艺文娱和电视剧范畴进行了实证研究，发觉媒体消费市场中确切存在引领者，并且引领者的需求恰是将来媒体市场的成长标的目标，这为媒体的运营供给了前瞻性的参考。 　　 [关键字]：原创性 引领者 群体动力 新消费主义 将来机缘指数 　　[Abstract]：There are many crises in current media market, the content crisis is the point, the main reason is TV content relies on TV series excessively, which results in the insufficiency of the original programs. Simultaneously, keen competition induced the elimination rate goes high, many programs can’t keep their outstanding places for over 3 months. The media industry is searching for an efficient method to realize the audiences’ need definitely, as well as to forecast the trends of market and TV program development. At present, there are different research methods with different aspects in China media market. This article discovered the “future shaper” concept in consumer segment is kind of coincident with “opinion leader” in media market, it attempt to bring “future shaper” concept into audience research, and make it localized in China. Meanwhile, based on research resources, this article applied the “future shaper” theory to TV program research, and find out that the “future shaper” is indeed existed in media market. The leaders’ needs showed the directions of media development, which supposed to provide references for media operations. 　　[Keywords]：Originality Future shaper Population dynamics New consumerism Future Opportunity Index 　　1、引言：电视不雅众研究的窘境 　　当前的电视媒体经营环境正遭受强烈的变动，诸如台台归并、制播分手和三网畅通领悟的各项办法正在紧锣密鼓的试点和准备傍边，作为媒体从业者，不由要问：电视到底该何往何从？电视的核心竞争力到底在哪里？从业内风行的不雅点来看，内容一向是电视相干于其他媒体的核心优势，内容华夏创性的栏目又最能表示一个电视媒体的内容实力。但内容危机也正不竭成为电视媒体经营的最大年夜短板，标题