飞机场运量灰色预测.PDF

2 0 3 20 05 6 Vol. 20 No. 3 Journal of Xuzhou Institut of T ch nology JUN. 2005 陈　东　周圣武 ( 国矿业大学理学院,　江苏　徐州　221008) 　　【　】　在运用基础 GM ( 1, 1)模型的基础上,采用残差 GM ( 1, 1)模型对基础模型进行了 修正,并用于飞机场的客运量和 运量的预测,提高了预测精度 . 预测结果对飞机场建设与管理决 策提供了科学依据. 【】　灰色系统; 运量;预测; 模型 【】　 23　【】 【】1673-0704( 2005) 03-0077-04 O A The Grey Prediction of the Transportation Amount of the Airport CHEN Dong　 ZHOU Sh ng-w u ( , , 221008, ) Coll g of Sci nc China Univ rsity of Mining and T ch nology Xuzh ou China 　　【 】　 ( 1, 1) , Abstract Bas d on th using of th normal GM mod l a n w mod l was inv nt d ( 1, 1) . by using Error GM to corr ct th normal mod l W apply th n w mod l in th pr diction of th transportation amount of th airport and g t th high r pr cision r sult. Th for casting r sults provid d th sci ntific basis for policy - making of construction and manag m nt of th airport. 【K ey words】　Gr y syst m; Transportation amount; Pr diction; M od l ,,,, ,,,.、 ,. ,, . GM ( 1, 1). 1　 1. 1　 ( 1, 1) GM X ( 0) = {x ( 0) ( 1) ,x ( 0) ( 2)… ,x ( 0) (n ) } , 1- A GO () k X ( 1) = {x ( 1) ,x ( 1) ( 2) ,… ,x ( 1) (n ) },x ( 1) (k ) = ∑ x ( 0) (i) ,k = 1, 2,… ,n - 1, ,GM ( 1, 1) i= 1 ( 1) dx (t ) ( 1)