基于新的威布尔分布参数估计法的设备寿命可靠性分析.docx

基于新的威布尔分布参数估计法的设备寿命可靠性分析 ΞREL IABIL IT 基于新的威布尔分布参数估计法的设备寿命可靠性分析 Ξ REL IABIL ITY L IFE ANALYSIS OF THE EQUIPMENT BASED O N NEW WEIBULL D ISTRIBUTIO N PARAMETER ESTIMATIO N METHOD 于晓红ΞΞ 张来斌 王朝晖 段礼祥 (中国石油大学 (北京) 机电工程学院 ,北京昌平 102249) YU Xiao Ho ng ZHAN G LaiBin WAN G Zhao Hui DUAN LiXia ng ( School of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering , China University of Petroleum , Beijing 102249 , China) 摘要 针对机械设备寿命可靠性分析中模型的精度问题 ,提出一种联合最小二乘及平均秩次估计威布尔分布参数 的新方法 。常用的参数估计法人为因素影响大 ,精度差 ,而且在现场使用不便 。文中提出的方法有效地解决了上述问 题 。在采用最小二乘法对威布尔分布进行参数估计时 ,经验分布函数是确定寿命模型的基准 ,它的精度直接影响寿命模 型的精度 。平均秩次法根据故障样本和中止样本估计出所有可能的秩次 ,求出平均秩次 ,代入近似中位秩公式 ,得到经 验分布函数 ,有效提高参数的精度 。选取 30 台发动机 ,对其进行寿命可靠性分析 ,结果表明 ,该方法具有很高的准确性 和实用性 。 关键词 威布尔分布 最小二乘估计 平均秩次法 经验分布函数 可靠性分析 中图分类号 TB114 Abstract According to the question of model precision in mechanical equipment reliability life analysis , a new method estimating the Weibull distribution model’s parameters by combining least2sauares method and mean rank order is put forward. The usual parame2 ter2estimation methods have disadvantages such as man2made effect , low precision and discommodious use in site , but all of them have been effectively resolved by the method that put forward. When using least2sauares method to make parameter estimation of Weibull dis2 tribution , empirical distribution function is used as the benchmark to ascertain the life model and the lifetime model’s precision is directly affected by its precision. The mean rank order estimating all rank order based on fault samples and ceasing samples to calculate the mean rank order , then putting mean rank order into approximate formula of middle rank to get empirical distribution function and the parameter precision is effectively improved by this. Thirty engines were selected to progress reliability life analysis , the result showed that this method has very strong practicability and high precision. Key words Weibull distribution ; Least2sa uares estimation ; Mean rank order ; E