疾病的流行病学浙江大学医学部流行病与卫生统计学王建炳--观察性研究实验性研究理论性研究.ppt

思考题 What are the meanings? Distribution Seasonal variation Incidence rate Cyclic change Mortality rate Secular trend Prevalence rate Epidemic Pandemic Outbreak Sporadic * 谢 谢 ！ * * * The essentials of epidemiology noted by Hippocrates included observations on how diseases affected populations and how disease spread. He further addressed issues of diseases in relation to time and seasons, place, environmental conditions, and disease control, especially as it related to water and seasons. The broader contribution to epidemiology made by Hippocrates was that of epidemiological observation. His teachings about how to observe any and all contributing or causal factors to a disease are still sound epidemiological concepts. 《论气、水和地区》 《论瘟疫》，共7册，其中第一和第三册无疑是希伯克拉底的手笔 * * * * * * Sir Austin Bradford Hill and Sir Richard Doll More than anybody else Richard Doll has stopped doctors pontificating without any evidence. Together with the father of medical statistics, Austin Bradford Hill, he introduced the randomised controlled trial: a method of assessing a treatment or procedure that is one of the most important medical developments of the century. Doll and Hill were also the first to show the connection between cigarette smoking and many serious diseases, particularly lung cancer and heart disease. Austin Bradford-Hill. He was a professor of statistics at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. * * * * * * 疾病的流行病学 浙江大学医学部 流行病与卫生统计学 王建炳 * 观察性研究 实验性研究 理论性研究 描述性研究 分析性研究 常规资料分析报告、个例调查、 病例报告、现况研究、生态学研究 病例对照研究、队列研究 临床试验、现场试验、社区试验 数学模型、计算机仿真 * 流行病学简史 * Hippocrates (460-377 BC) 第一个流行病学家 主要的流行病学著作： 《Epidemic Ⅰ》 《Epidemic Ⅲ》 《On Airs, Waters and Places》 主要贡献： 流行病学观察 环境在疾病发生中起着很重要的作用 * John Graunt (1620-1674) 利用死亡数据进行死亡分布及规律性研究 创制了第一张寿命表，计算期望寿命 用生存概率和死亡概率来概括死亡经历 提出设立比较组的思想 将统计学引入流行病学领域 《Natural and Pol