胜利油田海外油气勘探开发项目风险分析与对策研究.doc

PAGE iii PAGE iii 国石油大学（华东） 硕士学位论文 胜利油田海外油气勘探开发项目风险分析与对策研究 姓名：爨侦芳 申请学位级别：硕士 专业：管理科学与工程 导教师：张在旭Analysis and Countermeasure Study on the Risk of Shengli Oilfields Overseas Exploration and Development Projects in Oil and Gas Field CUAN Zhen-fang (Management Science and Engineering) Directed by Professor ZHANG Zd-xu Abstract PAGE IV With severe shortage of domestic resources and petroleum importing increasing annually, China is faced with oil and gas safety problem. In order to realize the multi-import of oil and gas for safety, developing overseas oil and gas resources will be the strongpoint for Chinese Oil Company. Shengli Oilfields overseas exploration and development projects in oil and gas field are at the initial phase. Compared with domestic exploration and development situation, tfie overseas one has many special characters, such as high general risk, long investment recycle time, high uncertainty, great regional risk and political risk and so on. Its success not only depends on technology, capital, management level but also risk management So flie research on overseas exploration and development project risk management play a very important role in oil and gas practice for Shengli Oilfields oil project as well as other Chinese oii company. Under the background of problems and challenges faced by Shengli Oilfield，according to the latest research of risk analysis at home and abroad in recent years, integrating with current practice of overseas exploration and development projects in oil and gas field, the paper establishes the evaluation index system of projects in oil and gas field, constructs project risk evaluation model with AHP (analytic hierarchy process) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and carries on the empirical analysis. Moreover, the paper has primary discussed countermeasures to overseas exploration and development projects in oil and gas field for Shengli Oilfield. Keywords： Exploration and Development, Risk Analysis, Index System