中国外汇储备适度规模研究.docxVIP

目录 中文摘要 1 英文摘要 2 一、外汇储备及其适度规模的内涵 3 （一）外汇储备概念 3 （二）研究外汇储备适度规模的现实意义 3 （三）影响外汇储备规模的定性因素分析 5 （四）外汇储备适度规模的内涵 6 二、关于适度外汇储备规模的研究方法及国内外研究现状 7 （一）国外关于适度外汇储备规模的研究情况 7 （二）国内关于适度外汇储备规模的研究情况 9 三、我国外汇储备适度规模的确定 9 （一）多元线性回归模型的实证分析 9 （二）我国外汇储备需求模型的建立及结论分析 13 （三）当前特定历史时期我国过量外汇储备的现实意义 18 四、针对我国外汇储备过量的对策 19 （一）保持外汇储备的适度规模 19 （二）经济危机背景下外汇储备作用有待进一步放大 19 致谢 22 参考文献 23 中国外汇储备适度规模研究 摘要 近年来，由于我国外贸持续保持顺差，各类型国际资本纷纷流入我国，我 国外汇储备规模保持了持续、快速的增长势头。截至 2008 年 12 月底，外汇储备 规模已经达到创纪录的 1.95 亿美元。面对如此快速飙升的外汇储备规模，一系 列问题待我们去认真地思考：为什么我国的外汇储备规模会出现如此惊人的增 长；如此高额的外汇储备会对我国经济产生哪些有利及不利影响；什么样的外汇 储备规模才是最适合于当前我国经济发展需要的规模；在当前金融危机面前如何 更好地利用外汇储备为我国经济发展提供必要帮助。本文写作思路：首先采用定 性分析方法找出影响外汇储备需求的几个主要因素，然后利用多元线性回归模型 验证这些变量的显著性，接着用阿格沃尔模型得出现阶段我国外汇储备过量的结 论，最后提出在当前全球经济危机的背景下过量外汇储备的一些对策。 关键词：外汇储备，适度规模，回归分析，阿格沃尔模型 1 Abstract: In recent years, sustained as a result of Chinas foreign trade surplus, have various types of international capital flows to China, the scale of Chinas foreign exchange reserves to maintain a sustained, rapid growth momentum. As of the end of December 2008, foreign exchange reserves have reached a record high of 195 million U.S. dollars. Faced with such a rapid surge in the size of the foreign exchange reserves, a number of issues to be for us to seriously consider: Why is the size of Chinas foreign exchange reserves will be so astonishing growth? Such a high level of foreign exchange reserves which will benefit Chinas economy and the adverse effects? What kind of foreign exchange reserves is the most suitable for Chinas economic development needs of the current size? At the current financial crisis how to make better use of Chinas foreign exchange reserves to provide the necessary help for economic development. In this paper, the order in writing: First of all, the use of qualitative analysis to identify the impact of foreign exchange reserves of several key factors. And then using multiple linear regression model to verify these variables was significant. Agarwal model and then used to draw the conclusions of China