Risk Analysis of Commercial Bank Loans to Local Government Financing Platform Based on Multi-step Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation 基于多级模糊综合评价的商业银行地方政府融资平台贷款风险分析.pdf

Risk Analysis of Commercial Bank Loans to Local Government Financing Platform Based on Multi-step Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Xing Bi and He Zhao Abstract Risk analysis of commercial bank loans to local government financing platform has important theoretical and practical significance. By analyzing influence factors of the loans risk based on the nation, local government and enterprise aspects, this paper establishes risk index system. Then it chooses the multi-step fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) to build the risk measurement model and makes application analysis of the model. This study helps commercial banks to strengthen risk prevention and management of local government financing platform loans, and promote the healthy development of China’s local government financing platform loans. Keywords Commercial bank loans • Local government financing platform • Multi-step fuzzy comprehensive evaluation • Risk analysis 1 Introduction China’s local government financing platform makes great contribution to speeding up the pace of infrastructure construction, and strengthening the government’s ability to take advantage of local resources (An Guojun 2010). Data from the CBRC (China Banking Regulatory Commission) in January this year, local government financing platform loans has been up to 9.2 trillion, accounting for 13.8 % of the outstanding loans of the banking sector. 35 % of the platform loans coming due in 2012–2014 three years, the local government platform X. Bi () • H. Zhao School of Management, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China e-mail: bistar@126.com E. Qi et al. (eds.), Proceedings of 20th International Conference on Industrial 641 Engineering and Engineering Management, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-40072-8__64, © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013 642