王观虎机场水泥混凝土道面使用寿命改进灰色预测模型.PDF

第9 卷　第3 期 交 通 运 输 工 程 学 报 Vol.9　No.3 2009 年6 月 Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering Jun.2009 :1671-1637(2009)03-0045-04 王观虎,蔡良才,邵　斌,种小雷,徐明霞 ( , 　710038) 　:为了准确 测机场水泥混凝土道面使用寿命,根据道面的使用性能特点, 确定道面破损度 为道面使用寿命的控制指标。采用灰色系统理论建立了道面使用寿命灰色 测模型,利用计算原 点残差的方法检验模型的精度,并采用数据序列中最近时间点的实测值为求解的初始条件改进模 型求解过程。研究结果表明:机场水泥混凝土道面破损度与道面使用时间呈指数型递增关系,道面 剩余使用寿命随使用时间呈指数型衰减;道面破损度 测值与实测值的误差不超过5%, 因此,该 模型有效, 可用于定期检测的道面。 :机场工程;水泥混凝土道面;使用寿命;灰色 测模型 :U416.216;V351.11　　　: Modified gray prediction model of service life for airport cement concrete pavement W NG Guan-hu, C I Liang-cai, SH O Bin, CHONG Xiao-lei, XU Ming-xia (School of Engineering, ir Force Engineering University, Xi an 710038, Shaanxi, China) Abstract:In order to accurately predict the service life for airport cement concrete pavement, the service characters of airport cement concrete pavement were studied, pavement breakage degree was considered as pavement service life index. gray prediction model was established according to gray system theory.Its prescision was tested by using origin residual error method.The solving process of the model was improved by taking the latter measuring value of pavement breakage degree as initial condition. nalysis result shows that pavement breakage degree increases exponentially with service time, but pavement remaining service life decreases exponentially with service time.T he relative error between the forecast value and actual value of pavement breakage degree is less than 5%, so the prediction model is effective and can be used in periodic inspectability pavement.3 tabs, 1 fig, 9 refs. Key words:airport engineering;cement concrete pavement;service life;gray predication model +