MSKCC和SOC模型预测中国乳腺癌患者非前哨淋巴结转移的验证比较研究.docx

MSKCC 和 SOC 模型预测中国乳腺癌患者非前哨淋巴 结转移的验证比较研究 曹迎明 刘 淼 周 波 潘 璐 王 殊 杨德起 摘要 目的：验证纪念斯隆-凯特琳癌症中心（Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center，MSKCC）模型和斯坦福大学模型（Stan? ford Online Calculator，SOC）预测中国前哨淋巴结（sentinel lymph node，SLN）阳性乳腺癌患者非前哨淋巴结（non-sentinel lymph node，NSLN）转移的能力并进行比较。方法：收集 120 例 SLN 阳性的乳腺癌病例验证 MSKCC 和 SOC 模型，通过受试者工作特征曲 线（Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve，ROC 曲线）下面积（Area Under the Curve，AUC）、不同截断值的预测能力来比较两个模 型在中国乳腺癌患者中的应用价值。结果：用 MSKCC 和 SOC 模型验证 120 例中国乳腺癌患者，AUC 分别为 0.688 和 0.734。取 10%为截断值，MSKCC 和 SOC 模型的假阴性率均为 4.4%，阴性预测值分别为 75.0%和 90.0%。取 90.0%为截断值，MSKCC 和 SOC 模型的假阳性率分别为 0.0%和 6.7%，阳性预测值分别为 100.0%和 68.8%。结论：用 MSKCC 和 SOC 模型预测中国乳腺癌 NSLN 转 移，结果皆劣于原始研究，SOC 模型的预测能力略优于 MSKCC模型。 关键词 乳腺癌 前哨淋巴结 非前哨淋巴结 转移 预测 doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-8179Comparative validation of MSKCC and SOC models for predicting non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in Chinese breast cancer patients Yingming CAO, Miao LIU, Bo ZHOU, Lu PAN, Shu WANG, Deqi YANG Correspondence to: Miao LIU; E-mail: liumiao@ Center of Breast Disease,Peking University Peoples Hospital,Beijing 100044, China Abstract Objective: The study aimed to validate the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomogram and Stan- ford Online Calculator (SOC) prediction of non-sentinel lymph node (NSLN) metastasis in Chinese patients with sentinel lymph node (SLN)-positive breast cancers. Methods: The MSKCC nomogram and SOC were used to calculate the probability of NSLN metastasis in 120 breast cancer patients who were positive for SLNs. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) for each model was evaluated. Patients with 10% and 90% probabilities of NSLN metastasis were separately examined. Results: The MSKCC and SOC predicted the likelihood of NSLN metastasis in a consecutive group of 120 patients with AUCs of 0.688 and 0.734, respective- ly. At the lowest probability cutoff value of 10%, the false-negative rates of MSKCC and SOC were both 4.4%, and the negative predic- tive values were