美国玉米产业的现状及展望.ppt

Philippines DDGS Imports菲律宾DDGS的进口 China is the Wild Card中国是个未知数 Does China…. 中国将如何发展 Go back into corn export market 回到玉米出口市场 Become corn importer 成为玉米进口国 Remain self sufficient in corn, wheat paddy 保持玉米，小麦和水稻的自给自足 All Asian corn importers are watching China 所有亚洲的玉米进口国家和地区都在关注中国 Current 08/09 corn crop 目前08/09年度玉米产量 Grain policy changes 谷物政策的变化 China vs. U.S. Corn Prices中国和美国玉米的价格比较 06/20/2008 RMB/MT $/bu $/MT Jilin Provence 吉林省 1,640 6.04 237.67 Dalian Port 大连港口 1,680 6.18 243.47 Guangzhou Port 广州港口 1,780 6.55 258.00 Chicago 芝加哥期货 1,959 7.2125 283.94 FOB NOLA 新奥尔良离岸价格 2,081 7.66 301.65 CNF Japan/Korea 日本/南韩到岸价格 2,923 10.76 423.65 CNF S. China 中国南方港口到岸价格 2,910 10.71 421.65 Shekou with VAT + duty 3,317 12.21 480.68 China vs. U.S. Corn Prices中国和美国玉米的价格比较 10/10/2008 RMB/MT $/bu $/MT Jilin Provence 吉林省 1,640 6.10 240.08 Dalian Port 大连港口 1,680 6.25 245.94 Guangzhou Port 广州港口 1,780 6.62 260.58 Chicago 芝加哥期货 1,098 4.0825 160.72 FOB NOLA 新奥尔良离岸价格 1,273 4.73 186.30 CNF Japan/Korea 日本/南韩到岸价格 1,601 5.95 234.30 CNF S. China 中国南方港口到岸价格 1,594 5.93 233.30 Shekou with VAT + duty 1,817 6.756 265.96  Thank you all 谢谢大家！ * Based on Oct 10 USDA report Area planted big increase in 07/08, then back down a bit in 08/09 (flood and late planting will affect amount that is harvested) * * Year Renewable Fuels Requirement (billions of gallons) 2013 16.5 2014 18.5 2015 20.5 or 77 billion liters 2016 22.25 2017 24 2018 26 2019 28 2020 30 2021 33 2022 36 or 136 billion liters Total feed grains Besides corn, also 1.4 MMT barley 1.3 MMT of sorghum * S. Korea has been one of the major feed wheat users and importer in Asia Also Philippines * Unique in that it is the only major SEA corn importer that does not also have their domestic corn production * Thailand Philippines not much of corn imports due to high protective import tariffs on corn, Phil – feed wheat * Besides Taiwan, US co