[学习]改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文PPT.ppt

The CES Conference July 30-31, 2004 Atlanta,Georgia,U.S.A. 1.The Situation and Characteristics of China’s Business Cycles of 25 Years since the Reform ●General characteristic of China’s macroeconomy: high growth+unstability ●The Performance of unstability:4 Cycles and 2 Stages Table 1 Growth Rate and Inflation Rate of China since the Reform (1978-2004) Source:SSBC,Statistical Yearbook of China and Statistical Bulletin, related years, China Statistical Publishing House (CSPH). Year 1978 199 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Real Growth Rate of GDP (%) 11.7 7.6 7.9 4.5 8.5 10.2 14.5 12.9 8.5 11.1 11.3 4.3 3.9 7.0 Inflation Rate (%) 7.0 2.0 6.0 2.4 1.9 1.5 2.8 8.8 6.0 7.3 18.5 17.8 2.1 2.9 Year 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 上半年 Real Growth Rate of GDP （%） 12.8 13.4 11.8 10.2 9.7 8.8 7.8 7.1 8.0 7.3 8.0 9.1 9.7 Inflation Rate (%) 5.4 13.3 21.7 14.8 6.1 0.8 -2.6 -3.0 0.4 1.0 -0.8 1.2 3.6  ? Cycle Length of Time Contraction Expansion Period Years Period Gap of Annual Growth Rate from Peak to Trough (%) Period Gap of Annual Growth Rate from Peak to Trough (%) Ⅰ 1978-1983 6 1978-1980 (3 years) –7.2 1981-1983 (3 years) +10.0 Ⅱ 1984-1987 4 1984-1985 (2 years) –6.0 1986-1987 (2 years) +2.8 Ⅲ 1988-1992 5 1988-1989 (2 years) –7.4 1990-1992 (3 years) +9.5 Ⅳ 1993-present unknown 1993-2001 (8 years) –6.3 2002- unknown ? unknown Sources: Table 1. Table 2 The Fluctuation Situation of 4 Business Cycles of China since the Reform Source: Table 1. Figure 1 4 Business Cycles of China (1978-2004) ●Two Stages：（1）1978—1996, Fighting Inflation Stage （2）1997—2002, Fighting Deflation Stage 2.The Causes of High Inflation during 1978-1996 ● In this stage, the first problem of China’s economy is curbing the high inflation with fast economic growth. ● 4 peaks of high inflation： (1)1978:7.0%