粉碎冠状病毒的不确定性：我们经济的巨大“解锁“（英文）.pdfVIP

Strategy Corporate Finance Practice Crushing coronavirus uncertainty: The big ‘unlock’ for our economies To safeguard lives and livelihoods, we must restore confidence. © Viaframe/Getty Images May 2020 This article was a collaborative, global effort by Sven Smit and Martin Hirt, with Penny Dash, Audrey Lucas, Tom Latkovic, Matt Wilson, Ezra Greenberg, Kevin Buehler, and Klemens Hjartar, representing views from McKinsey’s Strategy and Corporate Finance, Healthcare Systems and Services, Public and Social Sector, and Risk practices. Only eight weeks ago, we published “Safeguarding our lives and our livelihoods: The imperative of our time.” Back then, we worried about the supply of ventilators and critical-care capacity, the world’s ability to suppress the coronavirus, and how governments would respond to the pandemic’s economic fallout. So what has the world learned since? We now know that we can curb the spread of the virus, can rapidly expand critical care, and are on our way to scaling the availability of testing. We have seen most governments and central banks rapidly move to implement stimulus and liquidity measures to cushion the economic impact. Unfortunately, we have also confirmed that lockdowns cause deep economic shocks: peak to trough, developed economies are likely to see GDPs decline by between 8 and 13 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (Exhibit 1). By the end of Ap