阿尔及利亚市场观察报告.pdf

/// December 2013 /// CAUTION: NOT TO BE USED AS MARKETING MATERIAL SEMI - CONFIDENTIAL ALGERIA Maintaining the status quo: no pain no gain Key facts  Short-term prospects are mixed with overall GDP growth at only 3.3% in 2013-15 due to the poor performance of the hydrocarbon sector on the one hand and still healthy non-hydrocarbon activity driven by high public spending on the other. Inflation, which reached 8.9% in 2012, also decelerated markedly this year in tandem with lower growth in the government’s current spending.  Despite some moderation in the fiscal policy and still high oil prices, Algeria is still unable to balance its budget. Similarly, the current account surplus narrowed markedly to 2.8% of GDP this year as a result of a robust growth in imports , and nothing suggests that pressure will recede in the coming years. That said, with forex reserves covering almost three years of imports of GS, an oil stabilization fund at 35% of GDP, and a negligible external debt, Algeria will not face any financial difficulties in the short term .  Hydrocarbon rent is subject to persistent downward pressure. Lack of investment in the upstream sector and declining productivity in main fields have affected production capacity, which, combined with a robust national consumption, has caused a steady contraction in hydrocarbon exports since 2006. More recently, the trend has been aggravated by difficulties in European countries and disrupted production from the In