物流与供应链管理概述及案例分析.ppt

* Contrast variation between time periods with random differences between time periods. Suggestions for tools and approaches in three slides. What about forecasting? * * Examples of Sept. 11, Taiwan earthquake * What is shown here is how divergent these various forecasts are in relation to real demand. Why?? Because they are developed independently from each other and are dated, and unconnected to each other and the daily fluctuations in the market * What is shown here is how divergent these various forecasting are in relation to real demand. Why?? Because they are developed independently from each other and are dated, and unconnected to each other and the daily fluctuations in the market * What is shown here is how divergent these various forecasting are in relation to real demand. Why?? Because they are developed independently from each other and are dated, and unconnected to each other and the daily fluctuations in the market Why do we care? * * Are things changing faster? What are examples of these: EU Semiconductors, electronics Internet, “big box” stores How has shopping for a car changed? * Who takes the risk? What would the manufacturer like? * * Notice that in the previous strategy, the retailer takes all the risk and the manufacturer takes zero risk. This is way the retailer has to be very conservative with the amount he orders. If the retailer can transfer some of the risk to the manufacturer, the retailer may be willing to increase his order quantity and thus increase both his profit and the manufacturer profit * What does wholesale price drive? How can manufacturer benefit from lower price? * * What is the maximum profit that the supply chain can achieve? To answer this question, one needs to forget about the transfer of money from the retailer to the manufacturer. * * * * CV = STD/AVG * Average Inventory ~ ss + Q/2 * * * * * * * 零售商期望利润（100美元返款） $1,644,115 生产商利润（100美元返款） 生产商利润（100美元返款） $1,810,392 零售商期望利润 （批发价格降低100美元） 零售商期望利润 （批发价格降低100美元