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Can bad luck be explained?
生活中的倒霉事能解释吗?
Toast always lands butter side down. It always rains on bank holidays. You never win the lottery, but other people you know seem to ... Do you ever get the impression that you were born unlucky? Even the most rational person can be convinced at times that there is a force out there making mishaps occur at the worst possible time. We all like to believe that Murphys Law is true (if it can go wrong, it will).
每次吐司掉到地上总是抹了黄油的那一面贴地。每逢公假日必定下雨。你买彩票从来没中过 大奖,但是你认识的人里似乎有人……你有没有觉得自己生来就是个倒霉蛋?即使是最理智 的人有时候也会对此深信不疑,认为冥冥之中有一种力量让他们在最糟糕的时期里灾祸连 连。我们都愿意相信墨菲法则是对的(“该出错的,终将出错”)。
Part of the explanation for bad luck is mathematical, but part is psychological. Indeed there is a very close connection between peoples perception of bad luck and interesting coincidences.
人之所以走背运,部分是概率的问题 , 部分是心理上的问题。的确,人们对背运的感知和 一些有意思的巧合之间有着紧密的联系。
For example, take the belief that bad things always happen in threes (just like buses ...!) This popular notion would be unlikely to stand the scrutiny of any scientific study, but it must have some basis in experience, otherwise the phrase would never have arisen in the first place. What might be the rational explanation?
就拿“坏事成三”这种想法来说吧(就像等公交车一样,要么不来,要么一下来三辆!)。这种 流传甚广的观念可能根本经不起科学的检验,但是它必定有一些现实的依据 , 不然的话也 不会有这样的说法了。那么,什么样的解释才是合理的呢?
The first question is what is bad?
我们要考虑的第一个问题是“什么是坏事?”
Some things are only marginally bad, for example the train arriving five minutes late. Some are extremely bad, such as failing an exam or being sacked. So badness is much better represented as being on a spectrum rather than something which is there or not there.
有些事情只是稍稍有点不好,比如火车晚点五分钟。有些事情则是糟糕透顶,比如考试不及 格,或是被炒了鱿鱼。所以我们更应该把事情的好坏看成是一个程度的问题,而不是非好即 坏。
A particular event may only be a misfortune because of the circumstances around it. The train arriving five minutes late is a neutral event if you are in no hurry and reading an interesting newspaper article while you wait. It is bad if you are late for an important meeting.
某件事情有可能因为相关的一些因
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