2.4 经典演讲视频文档-2.pdf

Andrew McAfee TEDxBoston 2012 Are droids taking ourjobs? 00:00 As it turns out, when tens of millions of people are unemployed or underemployed, theres a fair amount of interest in what technology might be doing to the labor force. And as I look at the conversation, it strikes me that its focused on exactly the right topic, and at the same time, its missing the point entirely. The topic that its focused on, the question is whether or not all these digital technologies are affecting peoples ability to earn a living, or, to say it a little bit different way, are the droids taking our jobs? And theres some evidence that they are. 00:32 The Great Recession ended when American GDP resumed its kind of slow, steady march upward, and some other economic indicators also started to rebound, and they got kind of healthy kind of quickly. Corporate profits are quite high; in fact, if you include bank profits, theyre higher than theyve ever been. And business investment in gear -- in equipment and hardware and software -- is at an all-time high. So the businesses are getting out their checkbooks. What theyre not really doing is hiring. So this red line is the employment-to-population ratio, in other words, the percentage of working-age people in America who have work. And we see that it cratered during the Great Recession, and it hasnt started to bounce back at all. 01:18 But the story is not just a recession story. The decade that weve just been through had relatively anemic job growth all throughout, especially when we compare it to other decades, and the 2000s are the only time we have on record where there were fewer people working at the end of the decade than at the beginning. This is not what you want to see. When you graph the number of potential employees versus the number of jobs in the country, you see the gap gets bigger and bigger over time,