大学生科研创新项目研究报告.docx

北京市房地产价格调控与监管政策有效性分析大学生科研创新项目研究报告 北京市房地产价格调控与监管政策有效性分析 项目类型： 重点项目 项目年度： 2011 年 项目负责人： 闫希明（学号:32009031333） 负责人院（系）： 经济学院 专业（方向）： 经济学（实验班） 项目组成员： 刘雪洁、杨畅、王锦、朱颖鸥 指导教师： 沈宏亮副教授 项目名称: 教务处制 二 O—二年 摘要 2011年2月16日，北京正式公布了关于贯彻“国八条”的通知，简称“京十 五条”。“京十五条” 一经颁布便被称为“史上力度最强”的政策。京十五条这一政 策的出台在社会各界引起了强烈反应，对于其最终成效如何，意见和看法也莫衷一 是。本项F1旨在深入、客观地分析影响北京市房地产市场走势的诸因素基础之上， 对房地产价格调控与监管政策的有效性得出正确的判断。其理论意义在于为正确研 究评价政策提供一个全面的分析思路。在研究过程屮，本项n采用了设置社会调查 问卷，咨询房地产中介等机构，对比分析区域差异，采访房地产相关人士，建立数 学模型等方法。在经过为期一年的追踪调查之后，我们得出以下结论：“京十五条” 的出台龙疑对于北京的房地产市场产生了一定积极的影响。但就h前政策的实行效 果来看，要想使北京房地产市场价格大降是比较困难的，多种因素影响着房地产市 场的行情，使英很难仅被京十五条这一政策所规范和限制。同时，我们认为从长远 来看，为了保证北京房地产的市场的稳定性和满足更多居民的住房需求，京十五条 的继续贯彻实施是十分有必要的。 关键词：京十五条、有效性、北京房地产市场 Abstract On feb」6, 2011, Beijing government officially launched the announcement the new rules to implement State of eight11. Immediately after the new control policies were carried out, they were considered as the most rigorous regulation policies ever. At that moment, the Real Estate market in China was very controversial. Whether the new control policies could reach its desired effect was under the spotlight. By analyzing numerous factors influencing the real estate market in Beijing deeply and objectively, we are looking forward to estimate the availability of these new control policies. The academic purpose of the project is to offer a correct and comprehensive method for real estate politics assessing. We applied various kinds of method to the research, including setting up social questionnaire, consulting the real estate intermediary institution, interviewing related experts, and building mathematical model, etc. After a one-year period research, we have made following conclusions: The new control policies have indeed made certain positive effect on Beijing real estate market. However, under the currently situation, it is still unreasonable to confirm that the price of real estate in Beijing can maintain an downward trend since several factors have influence the real estate market, making it dif