网络舆情演化模式分析.doc

网偽與僑潼亿後弍分柝 漏弟：网湛骏備演0分柝乙戌彩网湛珂作砌冼的埜点内宕。立审後用施述网久岌惦过終的时 向存列来走门网洛與作的潼?过終，役用时向存列的分杨方;?去来採盍网港與储的潼亿規律, 构 窪了 6个网潘理伶演0槿式，包箔分布後式、干稳後式、相券軽式、勺枸似他式、周朗康式 劳栈式，并誇出3枸应的栈式分朽方:?去。虫鉛走明，枸建的网湛臭備潼0栈式褪掳侖議他走 a 网潘理储演亿过程，侖助孑更探足:文他分朽网海輿储演?規律，筠后篌演亿建僕握年理枪卑 血 芳键询：网洛與储；演從傩弍；时向唐列 Pattern Analysis of Internet Public Opinions Evolution ZHOU Yao-ming, ZHANG Hui-cheng, WANG Bo (Institute of Information Engineering, Information Engineering Univers比y, Zhengzhou 450002, China) Abstract: Analysis of Internet public opinions evolution has become a hot topic in recent years. Time series which describe the process of the netizen5 s posting can be utilized to represent the evolution of Internet public opinions. With the analysis methods of time series to explore the evolution patterns of Internet public opinions, this paper constructs 6 patterns, including distributional pattern, stationary pattern, correlative pattern, self-similar pattern, periodic pattern and trend pattern ? Techniques to realize these patterns are also discussed- The experimental results show that the patterns in this paper can express the evolution of Internet public opinions effectively, and provide theoretical basis for evolution modeling. Key words: internet public opinions; evolution pattern; time series 网湛奧储昱北由孑各种事需的树澈而产隹的通过互爵网傑垢的心们对孑诫事＜4的所有认知、 各扈、储 感和笛筠倾為的现合［门。网久対宴一事件所游侖的认知、右虑.、倦感餉仔为倾為的瘦亿过 終，农场?￡就昱 网静與储的潼紜过終。分朽网湛翼储的潼紜规律，掌握网艮储感寂対倾為的总紜规律，弟 网潘理储应対杲略握弹披术;￡捋，対孑?)家名全衣壮全牝诵稳定虫忘+分唾克的逢比。 ◎总I,网潘範作演0的确宪至克集中农3个方而：參孑请腿潼亿的科宪［2 - 3］；墓孑网洛直 克［A-5 ］；基孑粒孑丈互康型的确克［6_9 ］ ° 请迢潼?昱北曳一个希迢石傑垢中的盘?过終，主爰包循(Q希迢彷亡、話希迢产隹、一个请 疱角另一 个詮艇的紹茅。丈献［2］握出一神动右请艇後型，逼过将时向創分戌若千个$向,対备个 5向的点档俊用 狷3朗周瘫明等：网潘輿伟演亿他式分朽335 LDA饌型逵的潼0分朽。支献［3］握出一神隹奋时向请麵潼紜後型，逼过将时向因麦引入 到LDA常腿後 型,逬而分朽请遞话枸随时⑹的龙從规律。 网湛盘會修埼方而，枸秀砌冼瘠么为网念存籀昱超備潼統的基础，枸荚的确宛包站 g 石网須向 以乞网訪肉部的传晞总。点就［4］将一个新血專件的所侖支枯都疑取下来，逬而分朽一 个新渤事件逼 过各个网乩向的修皤艮况。点就〔5〕主丞分柘3傅客之向的念立互筠漪Q。 粒孑立互儀型为而，科宛者主凄倍用的理学中的粒孑立互仔剧対臭作潼紜中的主体(A)以 /S■主体向 的至多说建後◎丈献［6］节法握出墓Rising後型的輿妁演亿橫型，卷知肉袒呂内，由緞 呢粒孑向的简 羊立互规刖导出逐占呂的复农呢兔文献［7-8 ］将乡数癖刖MR( Majority Rule)首;文应用 石坯沦潼仏碍完 中，并握出3 MR輿枪演0栈理，用孑鋼释