股票价格的宏观影响因素研究及预测.docx

THE ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORSAFFECTING STOCK PRICES AND STOCK PRICESFORECASTING ABSTRACT The stock market has always been regarded as a countrys macroeconomic n microcosm ”, is not only the object of national public concern, but an important content of other countries to evaluate a countrys economic strength,its importanee is self-evident. With the market expanding, defects in Chinese stock market are also emerging, such as market standardization degree is not high, malignant events have often occurred; the related system is not perfect, the inconstant in policy phenomenon is serious, leading to significant changes in stock prices and investors had been delisting, seriously affect the healthy and stable development of the stock market.Therefore, it is necessary to study the factors affecting stock prices, and on this basis, seek appropriate ways to predict future stock prices as accurately as possible? First of all,on the basis of the theoretical analysis of the macroeconomic factors affecting stock prices , using the monthly data of related indicators from January 2004 to December 2013, grey correlation analysis, cointegration analysis and granger causality test are used in the empirical research on the relationship between the macro economy and stock market. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between macro economy and stock market,although there is a certain degree of diviation between them , the stock market is still a ” barometer of macro-economy. Secondly,select the BP neural network model and GM (1, 1) model to forecast the Shanghai composite index monthly data from October 2013 to December 2013, and found that neural network model, including the changes of macroeconomic information, has predicted results that are more in line with reality. Thus ,this article believes that the macroeconomic is still an important factor affecting stock prices ‘although they are phased divergence.When forecast the future stock prices,we