国际危机组织-利比亚翻开了新的一页（英文）-2021.5正式版.pdf

Libya Turns the Page Middle East and North Africa Report N°222 | 21 May 2021 Headquarters International Crisis Group Avenue Louise 235 • 1050 Brussels, Belgium Tel: +32 2 502 90 38 • brussels@ Preventing War. Shaping Peace. Table of Contents Executive Summary i I.  Introduction 1  II.  The National Unity Government: Getting to Yes 4  A.  Clearing the Hurdles 4  B.  Riding on the Momentum 6  C.  Contributing Factors 7  III.  Immediate Challenges 12  A.  Reaching a Consensus on Elections 12  B.  Ratifying the UN-backed Roadmap 16  IV.  Overcoming the Obstacles 20  V.  Conclusion 22  APPENDICES A. Map of Libya 23 B. About the International Crisis Group 24 C. Crisis Group Reports and Briefings on the Middle East and North Africa since 2018 ... 25 D. Crisis Group Board of Trustees 26 Principal Findings What’s new? After years in which parallel rival governments fought an inter- mittent war, Libya has a new consolidated executive. On 10 March, parliament endorsed a national unity government headed by Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba, which took office in Tripoli. The two pre-existing governments handed over power peacefully. Why does it matter? The establishment of a unified government, which enjoys the backing of Libya’s competing political groupings, their affiliated military coalitions and their foreign backers, is a historic achievement. It sets the stage for reunification of political and military institutions that have been divided and recurrently battling since 2014. What should be done? To move the political transition forw