德银-全球宏观策略：为全球经济接种疫苗-2021.5.24-29页.pdf

Deutsche Bank Research w Vaccinating the global economy e th i May 24 2021 T V M G 4 0 : e 2 5 : s marion.laboure@ 1 1 1 u henry-f.allen@db.om 2 0 2 / jim.reid@ 5 o 0 / 4 2 : H n o d e t e u b i r t s h i D T DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 051/04/2021. 7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa The House View, 24 May 2021 Since our last House View publication in March, our overall view of the global economy remains broadly the same. An end to the lockdowns in the US and Europe should be conducive to strong growth in the months ahead, while central banks are still expected to remain on the sidelines for now as they seek more clarity on the outlook. Nevertheless, the last month has seen inflation concerns crystallise in dramatic fashion, following the US CPI report which came in at +4.2% in April, the strongest rate in over a decade. Although economists were widely expecting higher inflation over the coming months thanks to base effects, this was a much larger rise than anticipated. Furthermore, price pressures only seem to be building further, with measures of inflation expectations on the rise, along with a range of key commodity prices. I am more concerned about inflation risks than our economists but they acknowledge the risks to their “largely transitory” base case are to the upside. For markets, we are generally more positive on European assets relative to their US counterparts, expecting a return of broader weakness for the US dollar and a move higher in 10-year Treasury yields to 2.25% by year-end. Our US equity strategist The views in this publication a