电信发展大趋势.pptx

电信网络技术的发展电信传输研究所赵慧玲 电信传输研究所为信息产业部研究发展策略，技术体制,规范和标准，测试和任证。为电信运营公司提供技术支持：进行设备选型和技术咨询。例如：IN，SS7，ISDN，同步网，编号，SDH，WDM，接入网，帧中继，多媒体，ATM，IP，IP电话，GSM，CDMA，高速讯呼和IMT－2000。 PSTNN-ISDNDDN移动网同步网X.25FRNB-ISDN公用无线数据网IP网公共业务平台电子邮件/传真存储转发/EDI多媒体信息服务台智能网话音平台语音信息台No.7信令网业务网电信管理网支撑网传送网图1 我国电信网的构成 Annual RevenueAnnual IncomeNote: Level 3 had high Extraordinary Revenues in 1998 that more than compensated the Loss on Ordinary Operations shown in this chartMCI Worldcom Revenue mixATT revenue mixATT revenue mix was the following in 1998:Business services: 23,611 Million USD (or 44% of the revenue)Consumer services: 22,885 Million USD (43%)Wireless services: 5,406 Million USD (10%)Other services: 1,321 Million USD (2%)ATT is just starting to introduce Broadband Internet Services in their reporting. These accounted for 3.4% of their revenues in the 1Q99.Traffic volume growth of voice and dataThe China figures, as proposed by ITUVoice: 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 95-96Main telephones in service: +36% +51% +57% +49% +35%Data:Number of Internet hosts: - - - +277% +820%Number of PCs: - +37% +55% +44% +42%ConclusionThere is still a lot of growth in traditional voiceThe revenues largely come from the voice traffic Expected growth of Voice-over-IPBy 2002, VoIP is expected to be 10.8% of total voice traffic(national+ international) (Internet + IP managed networks) For China the forecast is 1.2% in 2002; 4.5% in 2005Traditional voice has to be supported for a lot of years !Source: IDC/Link BCG analysisSource: OVUM ReportSegmentation of operatorsBased on the backbone protocolEstablished operators looking for very open multiservice networksFor data: use of ATM backbone to transport IP andFRFor voice: optimization of circuit networks (ATM backbone, voice over SDH, trunking of VoATM and VoIP in the existing network)Full support of existing services and introduction of new servicesNew telecom operators continuing ATM deployment, carrying IP, Voice and Frame RelayInternet service provid