中国创新体系的问题和发展和北师大同志们的对话与探讨.pptx

问题、观察、模型、检验-- 科学研究的心路历程;走上科学之路;好问题，就解决了问题的一半;如何观察“真实”世界？警惕有色眼镜！;观察、提问、与理论思维的跨学科互动;Logistic Growth in US Automobile Industry (Output as Percentage of GDP);Carrying Capacity, Technology Wavelets, Rise and Fall of Power (Product, Growth,) Cycles ;Culture Factor and Learning by Trying in Facing a New Market;观察案例与观察数据;SP500 Stock Price Index FSPCOM with log-linear (LL) and HP growth trends;Detrended cycles with varying lengths;Varying length of de-autocorrelations from varying length of time windows TAFD TAHP TALLD;White Noise (35%) vs. Persistent Cycles (65%)Correlation dimension =2.5Color chaos (strange attractor)Cross-correlation = 0.94;Phase portraits of SP 500 HPc cyclesWhite image vs. color chaos;Uncertainty Principle in Signal Processing;Gabor (Gaussian) Wavelet with Minimum Uncertainty;Gabor Space (1946) in discrete time-frequency space;Separating signals and noise in Gabor (time-frequency) space;Principle of Large Numbers for Positive Variables ;Observed MV 》 Effective CN (Data Source: Fed. Reserve St. Louis);Stable RD in US Macro Indexesobserved under HP filter ;RD Behavior for Stochastic Models ;寻找理论的暗中假设;寻找最简单的理论模型》但能解释新类别的现象;Multi-Staged Pure Birth ProcessMulti-Humped Distribution;集体行为的单峰与双峰分布：非理性行为的集体模型;双峰分布的经验证据：美国13岁男孩的性发育分布;软边界振子与高速公路模型（1988）;决定论分岔与多峰分布;登泰山而小天下;好奇和梦想是科学的动力！;文献;9、青少年是一个美好而又是一去不可再得的时期，是将来一切光明和幸福的开端。。8月-218月-21Wednesday, August 18, 2021 10、人的志向通常和他们的能力成正比例。23:41:1423:41:1423:418/18/2021 11:41:14 PM 11、夫学须志也，才须学也，非学无以广才，非志无以成学。8月-2123:41:1423:41Aug-2118-Aug-21 12、越是无能的人，越喜欢挑剔别人的错儿。23:41:1423:41:1423:41Wednesday, August 18, 2021 13、志不立，天下无可成之事。8月-218月-2123:41:1423:41:14August 18, 2021 14、古之立大事者，不惟有超世之才，亦必有坚忍不拔之志。18 八月 202111:41:14 下午23:41:148月-21 15、会当凌绝顶，一览众山小。八月 2111:41 下午8月-2123:41August 18, 2021 16、如果一个人不知道他要驶向哪头，那么任何风都不是顺风。2021/8/18 23:41:1423:41:1418 August 2021 17、一个人如果不到最高峰，他就没有片刻的安宁，他也就不会感到生命的恬静和光荣。11:41:14 下午11:41 下午23:41:148月-21