战略和互联网发展趋势.ppt

-*- RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm 战略和互联网发展趋势 E-COMMERCE IS DEAD “E-Commerce Is Dead, Long Live E-Commerce” The Industry Standard, April 2000 “Going, Going, Gone: Business-to-Consumer Sector Goes Bust” F, April 2000 “Can you build a brand online selling third-party goods? The answer is no, even though everyone used to think the answer was yes” Bryan Rutbert, Warburg Dillon Read “The living dead have gotten away with murder because the public markets have funded riskier ventures. Look at A - if could be the biggest living dead the public markets have ever seen.” Warren Packard, Draper Fisher Jurvetson TOM SIEBELCEO, Siebel Systems “If you can’t generate profits, significant market share and customer satisfaction, you re out of business.” “On the B2B exchange side, I don’t think anyone will survive. They are all gone.” THE CAPITAL MARKETS HAD IT ALL WRONG Travelocity B Expedia D E Priceline eBay Amazon $123B Webvan eBay Amazon All Other $11.4B IS THE REVOLUTION OVER?July 28, 1794 THE BUMPY RIDE OF ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS 1860 - 1890 1895 - 1925 FUNDAMENTAL FORCES ARE AT WORK 120 100 80 40 60 20 0 1770 1780 1775 Index Workers per bushel of manufactured cotton England 1770-83 Price of the Model T touring car 1908-20 1910 1915 1920 1985 1990 1995 Price of CPU computing power $/ MIPS 1982-95 Lower processing costs ... … with increased throughput ... Fiber capacity Time 105 0 104 103 102 … and powerful network economics 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 n Value increases as the square of connections Profit Loss Value Cost 0 2v 6v 12v 20v 30v 42v 56v 72v 90v n(n-1)v F+0 F+ 2c F+ 3c F+ 4c F+ 5c F+ 6c F+ 7c F+ 8c F+ 9c F+ 10c F+ nc Value, cost Connections Cost increases linearly with connections … lower storage costs ... $/MB Average HD size in PC at retail (GB) Harddrive size (GB) Cost ($/MB) LONG DISTANCE Wholesale (Network) Design/build Operations/maintenance Resale/interconnection Retail Sales/marketing Account management Billing Retail Sales/market