第五章基于盈余预测的价值评估和投资决策.pptx

财务报表分析与证券投资第五章基于盈余预测的价值评估和投资决策主要内容盈余预测问题概述结构化盈余预测基于盈余时间序列的简化预测基于盈余预测的价值评估绝对价值评估法相对价值评估法盈余预测问题概述企业未来盈利预测是企业价值评估的生命力所在。价值评估模型均以盈利预测为基础现金流折现模型股利折现模型剩余收益模型预测方法结构化盈余预测基于时间序列的简化预测结构化盈余预测从本期和过去的财务报表出发，系统地预测企业未来期间的财务报表，从中得到对未来盈余的预测。结构化盈余预测的步骤（1）第一步：对企业未来收入进行预测未来销售收入的增长率（一般假设预测期为5年）过去年度的收入变化宏观经济信息行业信息企业自身的特殊经营情况Example：国美电器收入增长预测Major Assumptions2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E Stores expansion - Store number at period end8261045119213331466- Avg. sales area per store (sq.m.)3,3103,3003,3003,3003,300- Avg. sales per sq.m. (RMB)1862117860193502108323009Earnings forcast(million)2009A2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E Turnover42668509106459682379100357120518growth (%)-21.96%19.32%26.88%27.53%21.82%20.09% Other income313234424251542166047931growth (%)-4.12%9.90%23.51%27.53%21.82%20.09%Consolidated gross profit7391936012410167052149127264Consolidated GP growth (%)-4.93%26.64%32.58%34.61%28.65%26.86%结构化盈余预测的步骤（2）第二步：对损益表上成本与费用科目进行预测假设未来各个成本、费用项目占销售收入的比例维持在比较稳定的水平上。企业的资产资本结构、成本控制措施等方面不会发生重大变化为前提。宏观经济形势和行业竞争态势的变化会影响成本费用占销售收入的比率。Example：国美电器成本费用预测Expenses and Other income ratio - Gross profit margin11.63%12.63%13.70%14.83%16.04%- Suppliers charge / Turnover6.76%6.58%6.58%6.58%6.58%- Rent increase-0.36%4.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%- Delivery expense decrease2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%- Salary increase16.81%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%- Bank loan interest rate6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%- Avg. CB interest/expense rate3.54%3.59%2.94%2.45%2.08% SGA expenses568866559451117651398716370Operating profit/(loss)1704270629594940750510894Operating margin (%)3.99%5.31%4.58%6.00%7.48%9.04%Interest expenses-129196-325-399-477-566Income tax406548716116417402498Minority intereset Profit140919622568417562428962结构化盈余预测的步骤（3）第三步：对资产负债表进行预测某些项目的预测依赖于资产负债表利息费用和折旧费用资金缺口：融资优先顺序Example：国美电器资产负债预测Asset or Liability turnover - Inventory turnover days65.5960.3455.5251.0746.99- A/R turnover days3.28 1.951.961.961.96- O/R turnover days17.54 14.9914.8114.6114.4- A/P turnover days121.16115.8114.3112.8111.2- O/P turnover