“开放二孩”政策对人口数量和结构的影响.doc

PAGE PAGE 17 “开放二孩”政策对人口数量和结构的影响 摘要：2015年底，我国决定开始全面地实施开放的二胎生育政策，即一对夫妻可生育不论是否独生子女都可以生育两个孩子。本文根据统计年鉴的历史数据针对开放二孩政策的问题运用Logistic模型，对2015-2050年的人口总数和人口增长率进行预测。在Logistic模型德基础上，利用开放二孩政策的年死亡率稳定，出生率为原始计划生育政策的false倍这个关系（其中，“false”指有意愿生二胎的人口的比），用Excel函数进行迭代得到2015-2050年的人口增长模型。然后根据Leslie人口模型结合婚育矩阵得出来的出生率用matlab软件编辑程序，每5年为一个时间段，预测老龄化的各项数据指标，分析开放二孩政策对比于原始计划生育政策对老龄化现象的影响。 关键词：开放二孩；Logistic模型；Leslie人口模型；MATLAB软件 The Influence Of Population Quantity And Structure For The Open Two Child Abstract: Decisions to completely lift bans on having two children were made during the Fifth Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee of the CPC held in October 2015. In other words, each couple is allowed to have two children. According to the historical data of statistical yearbook, this paper used the Logistic model to solve the problems of open two child policy. We forecasted the total population and population growth rate of 2015-2050.On the basis of Logistic model, use the relationship which the annual mortality rate is stable and the birth rate is ‘1+a’ times of the original family planning policy of the two child policy.(Among them, ‘a’ refers to the proportion of people who have willing to have second child).The population growth model of 2015-2050 was obtained by using Excel function. Based on Leslie population model and the birth rate obtained with childbirth matrix, program was edited with MATLAB software, with each time interval 5 years. In this way, various aging indexes were predicted, and analysis was made of the effect of the two-child policies on population aging, compared with the effect of original one-child policy. The paper ended with conclusions and distinctive opinions of the author. Keywords: Open the second child; Logistic model; Leslie population model; Matlab software; 一.引言： 自1983年我国实施“计划生育”政策以来，人口的增长趋势一直保持走低的态势。随着科技的发展，医疗水平的提高，死亡率随之降低，而出生率持续下降，导致人口老龄化现象日趋严重，很多工业区更是出现了招工难的现象，更多数据显示我国的经济创新力和创业能力都在下降。2012年年底，我国老龄人口数又创新高，达到2个亿。由于严格一孩政策，许多夫妇会出现“选择性生育”的情况，这种情况导致近