罗兰·伯杰趋势纲要2050：环境与资源.docx

1 1 Megatrend 3 Megatrend 3 Environment Resources Environment Resources 1 Climate Change Pollution Upping global climate change mitigation a must – In the future, water, food, and raw materials face critical issues. Valuable biodiversity is underfunded Subtrends of megatrend Environment Resources 123 2 1 2 3 Res ources: Abundance vs. Scarcity 3 Ec osystems at Risk Climate Change Pollution Resources: Abundance vs. Scarcity Ecosystems at Risk 2 2 2 Environment Resources The natural greenhouse effect enables our life on Earth – The anthropogenic greenhouse effect is a burdensome layer 1 C limate Illustration of the natural and anthropogenic greenhouse effect  The greenhouse effect is a process that heats the Earth’s surface. When Change Pollution 2 Res ources: Abundance vs. Scarcity Natural greenhouse effect Heat trapped by natural greenhouse gases  Solar radiation Natural + anthropogenic greenhouse effect More heat trapped by natural + anthropogenic greenhouse gases solar radiation reaches the Earth, some of it is re-radiated into space. Some is trapped by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, warming the Earth The natural greenhouse effect, caused by water vapor and natural levels of CO2, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone in the atmosphere, keeps the Earths temperature about 33 °C warmer than otherwise (15 °C average surface temperature instead of -18 3 Ec osystems at Risk Re-radiated heat escaping into space Atmosphere Less re- radiated heat escaping into space Atmosphere, incl. additional GHGs °C). Water vapor accounts for 36-85% of the overall greenhouse effect, depending on sky and regional conditions Human activities – particularly activities such as the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), agriculture, and land clearing at scale + 33 °C Warming caused by greenhouse effects + 33 °C + 1.2 °C – are increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases, in particular of CO2, methane and nitr