高盛俄罗斯风险报告（2022-02-28）.docx

Note: The following is a redacted version of the original report published February 24, 2022 [29 Note: The following is a redacted version of the original report published February 24, 2022 [29 pages]. MINDTOPof MIND  RUSSIA RISK ISSUE 106 | February 24, 2022| 7:14 PM EST The potential geopolitical, economic, and asset implications of the con?ict unfolding between Russia and the West over Ukraine are Top of Mind. We speak to three Russia watchers for context and views: former US senior intelligence of?cer Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Director of the Moscow Center of the Carnegie Endowment, Dmitri Trenin, and Professor at Johns Hopkins SAIS, Michael Mandelbaum. They interpret the lead-up to recent events very differently. But, at this point, Kendall-Taylor believes that Russia may not relent until it has secured a large swath of Ukrainian territory, and Trenin envisions a more permanent rupture between Russia and the West. We turn to sanctions policy expert Eddie Fishman and GS analysts to understand why ...AND MOREAndrew Matheny, GS CEEMEA Economics ResearchWHAT’S INSIDEINTERVIEWS WITH:Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Director, Transatlantic Security Program, CNASDmitri Trenin, Director, Carnegie Moscow CenterEddie Fishman, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic CouncilMichael Mandelbaum, Professor, Johns Hopkins University GREATER RESILIENCE, GREATER LEVERAGEClemens Grafe and Andrew Matheny, GS CEEMEA Economics ResearchSANCTIONS: WHERE, AND HOW, FROM HEREAlec Phillips, GS US Economics ResearchTHE GEOPOLITICAL HEDGE OF FIRST RESORTDamien Courvalin, Samantha Dart, Callum Bruce, GS Commodities ResearchTHE COST OF DE-GLOBALIZATIONJeff Currie, GS Commodities ResearchRUSSIA-UKRAINE: EUROPEAN ECONOMIC RISKSJari Stehn, GS Europe Economics ResearchRUSSIA-UKRAINE: AN ECONOMIC DECOUPLING“and how sanctions—and their economic ...AND MORE Andrew Matheny, GS CEEMEA Economics Research WHAT’S INSIDE INTERVIEWS WITH: Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Director, Transatlantic Security Program, CNAS Dmitri Tre