高盛碳经济学——供应安全和能源资本支出回报报告（2022-03-22）.doc

Note: The Note: The following is a redacted version of the original report published March 17, 2022 [34 pgs]. EQUITY RESEARCH | March 17, 2022 | 9:21PM GMT Carbonomics Security of Supply and the Return of Energy Capex We believe that the Russia-Ukraine con?ict is a turning point for the energy sector, similar to and potentially greater than the 2011 concurrence of the Fukushima nuclear accident/Libyan civil war. Similarly to 2011, we expect an acceleration of US shale and global LNG construction. However, seven years of hydrocarbon under-investment (2015-21) and an ongoing focus on de- carbonization mean this energy investment cycle will be different. In this report, we analyze in detail this Return of Energy Capex, with ?ve key conclusions: 1) Primary energy capex fell 35% over the past decade, and we expect it to grow 60% by 2025 to $1.4 trn (from c.$0.9 trn in 2021). 2) This European energy crisis has a strong seasonal component (winter demand for gas is 2x higher than in summer) that requires LNG imports and hydrogen to complement renewable power growth. 3) Analyzing the global LNG project pipeline, we identify 156 mtpa, or c.US$139 bn of new projects to be sanctioned over the next 5 years, with average economics of $8-10/mcf. 4) Green Hydrogen is Europe’s long-term solution to security of supply, seasonal storage and industrial demand. RePowerEU targets a 4x upgrade to previous Green Hydrogen production by 2030. 5) The average capex intensity of low carbon energy developments is c.2x that of hydrocarbons, further enhancing the need for energy capex; we estimate the need for an incremental $1.5trn pa of capex by 2032. Michele Della Vigna, CFA +44 20 7552-9383 michele.dellavigna@ Goldman Sachs International Alberto Gandol? +39 02 8022-0157 alberto.gandol?@ Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Milan branch Zoe Clarke +44 20 7051-2816 zoe.clarke@ Goldman Sachs International Daniela Costa +44 20 7774-8354 daniela.costa@ Goldman Sachs International Bepul Shahab +44 20 77