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TEXT ONE As the oil price climbed towards $100 a barrel during the past few weeks, big Western oil firms were reporting their results for the third quarter. Record oil prices, it turns out, do not translate into record profits. Oil is now close to exceeding the record set in 1979 of between $100 and $110, depending on how you adjust for inflation and what benchmark you use. Yet almost without exception, big oil firms profits are falling from the peaks reached last year. Exxon Mobil, for example, reported a 10% drop in profits in the third quarter, and BPs fell even more sharply. Profits also fell at Chevron, ConocoPhillips and Eni. They rose at Total and Royal Dutch Shell—but only thanks to exchange-rate fluctuations and one-off asset sales. Analysts at Citigroup calculate that, measured in dollars, the biggest oil firms earnings fell by 15% on average. To be fair, the oil price has surged most dramatically since the end of September, although it was also buoyant in the third quarter. The majors poor showing also reflects lower profits from refining, as the difference in price between petrol and crude oil has fallen from the exceptionally high levels of recent months. But the fact remains that oil giants are struggling to pump more oil and gas. In part, this is due to a quirk of the rules that oblige Western oil firms to share the crude they produce with state-owned oil firms in many countries. The contracts in question often stipulate that as the price goes up, the volume of oil the foreigners receive decreases. Worse, several countries are changing contracts or tax rules in ways that will further erode the Western oil firms profits—and in some cases are throwing them out altogether. Rising costs are also a problem. Exxon, which is known for its stringent financial discipline, saw costs rise almost twice as fast as revenue in the third quarter. The shortage of labour and equipment that is feeding this inflation is also causing delays to new projects. And there are
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