HSBC-全球石油行业-石油市场：已到达极限-2022.5.26-22页.docx

Oil markets Oil markets Stretched to the limit Stretched to the limit SPR releases bring relief to markets – at least for now The system is already becoming stretched to the limit, but Russian supply could drop further, especially on an EU ban Brent forecast unchanged at USD101/b for 2022, but risks are to the upside without a meaningful fall in demand SPR brings relief… for now: Releases from government-controlled Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs) have helped alleviate the stress on the global oil market to some degree in recent weeks, halting the 18-month-long fall in commercial oil inventories, but these stocks are still at historical lows. The relief may only prove to be temporary – we think the market will move back into a supply deficit in 2H22. Demand set to rise: Global balances have been helped by weak demand, with 2Q demand as much as 3mbd lower than in 4Q21. High product prices are clearly having an effect on OECD demand, but in the coming months this could be offset by normal seasonality and a recovery in Chinese demand as its lockdowns are lifted. We think second-half 2022 global demand could well be close to 2mbd higher than in 1H. Russian outage to increase: Russian seaborne exports actually rose in April/May, with much of the increase heading to buyers in Asia. Product exports have fallen sharply though, leading to a sharp fall in crude flows into Russian refineries. Russia’s production was down c1mbd in April, but could fall quite a bit more; we have yet to see the full effect of buyers’ “self-sanctioning”, EU financial sanctions which kicked in on 15 May, or the recent withdrawal of the major oil trading houses. An EU-wide ban on oil imports and/or – equally important – on shipping insurance could put even more pressure on Russian exports; both are currently under discussion. US supply coming back, slowly: The sharp rise in the US rig count hasn’t been reflected in a similar rise in fraccing activity or in production yet – US shale volumes are u