《德国经济对中国的依赖程度》报告（2022-06-23）.docx

38 2022 June Vol. 6 German-Chinese Trade Relations: How Dependent is the German Economy on China? Andreas Baur and Lisandra Flach (LMU Munich and ifo Institute) German-Chinese German-Chinese Trade Relations PAGE 11 PAGE 10 PAGE 10 German-Chinese Trade Relations German-Chinese Trade Relations: How Dependent is the German Economy on China? 1 2 Andreas Baur and Lisandra Flach* LMU Munich and ifo Institute, Munich, June 20, 2022 Abstract In recent decades, China has risen to become Germany’s most important trading part- ner for international trade in goods. Has Germany become too dependent from trade with China? An analysis using direct and indirect value-added linkages along the supply chain shows that China plays an important, but by no means dominant role for Ger- many as a supplier or destination market. However, in a survey conducted by the ifo Institute, 46% of German firms in the manufacturing sector state that they currently de- pend on important intermediate inputs from China. Of those, almost half of the firms are planning to reduce imports from China in the future. The most frequently men- tioned reasons for reducing imports from China are the desire to decrease dependen- cies and increase diversification, increased freight costs and disruptions in transporta- tion, as well as political uncertainty. An analysis at the product level shows that the German economy depends on several critical industrial goods and raw materials from China. 1 We would like to thank Felix Leiss (also on behalf of all other members of the ifo survey team) and Isabella Gourevich for their support in preparing the special questions for the ifo Business Survey. 2 A German version of this essay has been published at ifo Schnelldienst, see Baur and Flach (2022b). Andras Baur, LMU Munich and ifo Institute, Munich, baur@ifo.de; Lisandra Flach, LMU Munich and ifo Institute, Munich, flach@ifo.de. TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 3 Introduction 6 China’s Rapid Rise to Become Ge