核心货币观点：当事情变得艰难.docxVIP

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核心货币观点：当事情变得艰难.docx

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Global FX Strategy Global EM Research10 June 2019Global FX Strategy EM Markets Meera Chandan Global FX Strategy Global EM Research 10 June 2019 Global FX Strategy EM Markets Meera Chandan AC {44-20)7134-2924 J.P. Morgan Securities plc Paul Meggyesi (44-20)7134-2714 J.P. Morgan Securities plc Sally M Auld (61-2) 9003-7904 J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited Daniel P Hui (1-212) 834-5997 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Tohru Sasaki {81-3)6736-7717 JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Thomas Anthonj (44-20) 7742-7850 J.P. Morgan Securities plc Anezka Christovova (44-20) 7742-2630 J.P. Morgan Securities plc Robert Habib (1-212)834-4876 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Jonathan Cavenagh (65) 6882-8424 ) JPMorgan Chase Bank. N.A., Singapore Branch Contents \o Current Document Key Currency Drivers2 \o Current Document USD Index6 \o Current Document JPY8 \o Current Document EUR10 \o Current Document GBP12 \o Current Document CHF14 \o Current Document NOK16 \o Current Document SEK18 \o Current Document CAD20 AUD NZD22 \o Current Document MXN26 \o Current Document BRL27 ZARRUB28 TRYCE429 KRWINR30 \o Current Document CNY31 \o Current Document J.P. Morgan Forecasts32 J.R Morgan Corrected Note (first published 07 June 2019) (See paqe 39 for details) Key Currency Views When the going gets toughUncertainty on the trade and growth outlook has increased, prompting markets to price dovish policy response from central banks. USD is underperforming on Fed dovishness; we expect dollar weakening to be durable narrowly, primarily vs. other defensive FX such as CHF and JPY. While lower DM rates could provide interim support, ultimately growth concerns likely to keep high beta FX vulnerable. Stay underweight vulnerable GIO high beta FX (AUD, NZD)... ...and modestly underweight EM FX. Risks arc skewed to further weakness given growth uncertainty in a late cycle environment. Expectations of a Fed cut prompt FX target upgrades of reserve currencies vs. USD. JPY