港股-博 彩业-澳门博 彩业：机会越来越大.docxVIP

Credit SuisseEquity ResearchAsia Pacific | Hong Kong Credit Suisse 1 网顿1电ecto「 Research Analysts Actual New estimates Previous estimates Kenneth Fong 852 2101 6395 MOP mn 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E VIP win rate 3.1% 3.3% 3.4% 3.5% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% YoYchg -0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.1% 0.0% VIP 138,981 115,134 117,421 126,332 125,691 133,500 141,428 Lok Kan Chan YoY chg 10% -17% 2% 8% -10% 6% 6% Mass-market 144,841 162,946 185,759 209,908 165,119 186,585 208,975 852 2101 6390 YoY chg 17% 13% 14% 13% 14% 13% 12% Slot 16,937 17,276 18,485 19,779 17,615 19,376 21,314 Rebecca Law 铀拈3 1「5 物7% 7% 4% 10% 10% Total 300,760 295,356 321,665 356,019 308,425 339,461 371,717 852 2101 7985 YoYchg 14% ■2% 9% 11% 2% 10% 10% Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Whats new?⑴ Industry luck factor would be structurally higher: The combination of “Lucky 6 as a new Baccarat side bet option (house edge at 17% vs the blended 3% currently) and rising adoption of non-commission Baccarat tables should lift the industry house edge and GGR (both mass and VIP) by 10% over two years, leading to better margin both for casinos and junkets.⑵ Improving fundamentals: Mass GGR stayed solid at +14% in 3Q and stayed strong at +15% in Oct. Decline in VIP rolling chips is also narrowing. With VIP volume only 10% above the 2016 trough but looser China liquidity, we see upside here.⑶ Sectors under-owned: Consensus conservatively expects 2-4% GGR growth for 2020. Valuation is undemanding at lOx 2020 EBITDA even on conservative forecast.⑷ Supportive policy from New Macru CE who is well regarded locally and by the Central Government. With infrastructure connecting, and within, Macau mostlyfinished and Hengqin Island leased to Macau, we expect more supportive policies to support Macau. Key calls: TOP PICK-MLCO and Melco:⑴ Consistent share gain both in VIP and mass. Luck adjusted EBITDA saw a 22% improvement since Morpheus opened in 3Q18. (2) Effective earnings (rdj. for minority interest) is