评估企业关闭对冠状病毒疾病结果的影响（英）-2022.7.pdf

Assessing the Impact of Business Closures on COVID-19 Outcomes Xuequan Elsie Peng and Chima Simpson-Bell WP/22/ 139 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2022 JUL © 2021 International Monetary Fund WP/22/139 IMF Working Paper Statistics Department Assessing the Impact of Business Closures on COVID-19 Outcomes Prepared by Xuequan Elsie Peng and Chima Simpson-Bell* Authorized for distribution by Carlos Sánchez-Muñoz July 2022 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: In this paper, we present a framework for assessing the effectiveness of different business closure policies, using New York City as a case study. Business closure policies have been widely implemented in an attempt to slow down the pandemic, but it is difficult to measure the contribution of closures of specific industries to virus transmission. Our framework allows us to estimate the impact of specific industry closures on the spread of COVID-19 via their effects on aggregate mobility. We find that early reopening led to a prolonged pandemic and a large case surge in the second wave during 2020, though the reopening allowed the city to regain its eco