欧洲天然气:供应中断的潜在影响(英)-2022.7.pdf

欧洲天然气:供应中断的潜在影响(英)-2022.7.pdf

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Natural Gas in Europe The Potential Impact of Disruptions to Supply Gabriel Di Bella, Mark Flanagan, Karim Foda, Svitlana Maslova, Alex Pienkowski, Martin Stuermer and Frederik Toscani WP/22/145 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2022 JUL © 2022 International Monetary Fund WP/22/145 IMF Working Paper European and Research Departments Natural Gas in Europe: The Potential Impact of Disruptions to Supply Prepared by Gabriel Di Bella, Mark Flanagan, Karim Foda, Svitlana Maslova, Alex Pienkowski, Martin Stuermer and Frederik Toscani* Authorized for distribution by Laura Papi and Petya Koeva Brooks July 2022 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper analyzes the implications of disruptions in Russian gas for Europe’s balances and economic output. Alternative sources could replace up to 70 percent of Russian gas, allowing Europe to avoid shortages during a temporary disruption of around 6 months. However, a longer full shut-off of Russian gas to the whole of Europe would likely interact with infrastructure bottlenecks to produce very high prices and significant shortages in some countries, with parts of Central and Eastern Eur

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