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Natural Gas in Europe
The Potential Impact of Disruptions to
Supply
Gabriel Di Bella, Mark Flanagan, Karim Foda, Svitlana Maslova,
Alex Pienkowski, Martin Stuermer and Frederik Toscani
WP/22/145
IMF Working Papers describe research in
progress by the author(s) and are published to
elicit comments and to encourage debate.
The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are
those of the author(s) and do not necessarily
represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,
or IMF management.
2022
JUL
© 2022 International Monetary Fund WP/22/145
IMF Working Paper
European and Research Departments
Natural Gas in Europe: The Potential Impact of Disruptions to Supply
Prepared by Gabriel Di Bella, Mark Flanagan, Karim Foda, Svitlana Maslova, Alex Pienkowski, Martin
Stuermer and Frederik Toscani*
Authorized for distribution by Laura Papi and Petya Koeva Brooks
July 2022
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit
comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the
author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
ABSTRACT: This paper analyzes the implications of disruptions in Russian gas for Europe’s balances and
economic output. Alternative sources could replace up to 70 percent of Russian gas, allowing Europe to avoid
shortages during a temporary disruption of around 6 months. However, a longer full shut-off of Russian gas to
the whole of Europe would likely interact with infrastructure bottlenecks to produce very high prices and
significant shortages in some countries, with parts of Central and Eastern Eur
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