英汉互译课件-(1.16.16)--小组作业精选——中国经济会步日本后尘吗（二.pptVIP

——part two China’s economy: not just another fake The worlds capital The worlds capital China’s second apparent point of similarity to Japan is overinvestment. Total fixed investment jumped to an estimated 47% of GDP last year—ten points more than in Japan at its peak. Chinese investment is certainly high: in most developed countries it accounts for around 20% of GDP. 中国同日本的另一个明显的相同点是过度投资。去年，总的固定投资额占GDP 的比例跃升到将近47%-这比日本峰值的水平还高10个百分点。中国的投资肯定是太高了：在大多数发达国家固定投资占GDP的比例大约在20%左右。 But you cannot infer waste from a high investment ratio alone. It is hard to argue that China has added too much to its capital stock when, per person, it has only about 5% of what America or Japan has. China does have excess capacity in some industries, such as steel and cement. But across the economy as a whole, concerns about overinvestment tend to be exaggerated. 但是单单就凭一个较高的投资比例，你不能断定投资存在浪费现象。在中国的人均资本还只是日美人均资本量的大约5%的情况下，很难下定论说中国资本存量过剩。中国在一些行业确实存在过剩的资本，诸如钢铁、水泥行业。但是纵观中国经济全局，过度投资的担忧似乎有些被夸大了。 Pivot Capital Management points to China’s incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR), which is calculated as annual investment divided by the annual increase in GDP, as evidence of the collapsing efficiency of investment. Pivot argues that in 2009 China’s ICOR was more than double its average in the 1980s and 1990s, implying that it required much more investment to generate an additional unit of output. Pivot资本管理公司用增量资本产出比例（简称ICOR）作为中国投资效率的下滑的有力证明，ICOR的计算方法是用年度投资增量除以年度GDP增量。Pivot称2009年中国的增量资本产出比例是20世纪80，90年代的平均水平的两倍还要多，意味着额外产出需要耗费更多的资本。 However, it is misleading to look at the ICOR for a single year. With slower GDP growth, because of a collapse in global demand, the ICOR rose sharply everywhere. The return to investment in terms of growth over a longer period is more informative. Measuring this way, BCA Research finds no significant increase in China’s ICOR over the past three decades. 然而，单看某一年的ICOR会具有误导性。在全球需求低迷导致的GDP增长缓慢的大环境下，世界各地的增量资本产出比例都在急剧上涨。从长期增长的角度来看资本回报率更有意义。从这个角度看，BCA研究公司发现中国的增量资本产出比例在过去