海上钻井模型更新：长期解冻仍在继续.docxVIP

North America Equity Research12 November 2018J. P MorganOffshore Drilling North America Equity Research 12 November 2018 3Q18 Model Updates: The Long Thaw Continues; 2H19 DW Rebound at Risk for Slippage into 2020Oil Services and Equipment Sean C Meakim, CFA Oil Services and Equipment Sean C Meakim, CFA AC (1-212) 622-6684 Bloomberg JPMA MEAKIM GO Justin W Hawkins (1-212) 622-5248 Aaron Rosenthal (1-212) 622-5828 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Oil Services and Equipment Sean C Meakim, CFA AC (1-212) 622-6684 Bloomberg JPMA MEAKIM GO Justin W Hawkins (1-212) 622-5248 Aaron Rosenthal (1-212) 622-5828 J.P. Morgan Securities LLCWe are updating our offshore driller models following 3Q18 earnings and recent fleet sheets. While quarterly results were fairly positive, we think the market once again Oil Services and Equipment Sean C Meakim, CFA AC (1-212) 622-6684 Bloomberg JPMA MEAKIM GO Justin W Hawkins (1-212) 622-5248 Aaron Rosenthal (1-212) 622-5828 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC ? Fairly positive 3Q results relegated behind fleet activity ramp and 2019 UDW outlook. The offshore drillers reported 3Q EBITDA ?18% above our estimates and consensus (ex. RDC due to negative EBITDA), printing better- than-expected top line (on average +7% v. JPME; +2% v. Street) and opex (-2% v. guidance midpoint). RIG and NE delivered the strongest EBITDA beats, though cash margins were skewed positively on certain beneficial line items relative to our expectations. For the second consecutive quarter, DOs opex beat benefitted from reactivation/upgrade capex slipping right, while ESVs gross margin posted +6% above our estimate as slightly higher costs associated with jackup contract prep were more than offset by a q/q decline in floater utilization. Meanwhile, RDCs -$16mm EBITDA print was relatively consistent with expectations (JPMe -$23mm v. Street -$12mm) as the companys jackups transitioned to ARO during the quarter. The stocks traded up ~60bps on average in the session following their r